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My fanstasy life as a KRAZEE KOLOR breeder
Topic Started: Apr 14 2008, 07:39 PM (378 Views)
mareseatoats
Thomas H. Cruise!
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So to keep from committing hari kari, I've been developing my mandatory statistics project around something I already have a jump on, since for a couple years I've been preparing for life after I win powerball. That would be picking a potential sire for my little girl to produce half-arabian sport horses with color. The binomial probability of increasing my mare herd, with success being r=2, n=12, success = black/bay fillies with sabino/chrome and failuer = anything else.

So I started out looking at stallions that would improve where she could use improvement. But with a deadline looming, I degenerated pretty quickly into a Krazee Kolor breeder, using "throws color and has a lot of baby pix on breeder's site" as my rock bottom standard. :lol: :lol: :lol:

So I wasn't supposed to start crunching numbers until after next weeks round of exams and quizzes, but curiosity got the best of me. They're all nice stallions, although some look better for my girl than others. I've collected data on Fabuleaux (122 foals), Gold Luck (73), Beste Gold (38), Waldaire (34), Pointmaker (23), Loerke (25), Wonderful (23) and Rubino Bellisimo (19). Wanted to look at Zarr, but can't get into his website.

Anyway, as we moved out of probabilities and into inferences in class, I thought I'd take a quick look at whether sabino gene/modifier blocker genes might show signs of being linked to gender or to body color. Looking at warmbloods, I figure their mixed bag of genetic heritage probably dilutes the impact of breed-specific gene combos. Plus other than a few notable exceptions, with warmblood breeders there's more likely to be a normal mix of solid and chrome mares bred to them.

I've ruled out any gender link to chrome pretty quickly -- it's consistently pretty even between colts and fillies, regardless of sample size.

Now I'm looking at black or bay with chrome versus chestnut with chrome. WHOA!!!! I've often thought major chrome seemed to show up in the general population on chestnuts more than bay or black. I'm finding, so far consistently but still a ways to go, that chestnut foals from chestnut (c/c) sires seem two or evern three times as likely to express sabino as black or bay foals. So all this time, it wasn't just my imagination..there may be a link there.

Plus, Fabuleaux appears to be homozygous for black (B/B) and produces about the same (probably slightly higher) percentage of foals with chrome as the black or bay foals of the chestnut stallions.

The only exception so far seems to be Pointmaker (B/c). I haven't run his numbers, but just looking at my tally sheet it looks like that guy throws 3-4 high whites on *everything*!!!! Ok, I just did a quick count. Of 23 foals total, 19 have chrome, and 9 of those w/3-4 high stockings. 8 chestnut foals, 100% with chrome. Of 15 black or bay foals, 11 (73%) have chrome.

So he wins the breeding pool for my filly! I also happen to like his overall type for her! Boy this was fun...can I do it again?!?
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Buryinghill1
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I would need a lotta Red Bull to keep up with you :innocent:
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DairyQueen2049
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DRAGON BREATH. DRAGGIN' BUTT
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So where is the link to his page then??? ;) And a pic of your mare too So we can all see what baby may look like. :cheer:
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vxf111
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Just a thought, but breeders whose main goal is color are far more likely to report/post pictures of the foals that got color as opposed to the ones that didn't. Without knowing the entire foal crops, not just the reported ones, I'd think there'd be a major skew in the numbers.
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headlesshorseman
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Ditto the Red Bull :teehee: :teehee:

I would LOVE to SEE the mare and the potential husbands...

THANKS....

HH :)
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Sing Mia Song
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Can I send you my homework on linear regression? It's due Thursday. Oh, and would you happen to be blonde, about 5'4" and 140 pounds? Good--the finals' May 14. When can you be here?

:lol:

This is my brain on stats: :brickwall: :mallet: :brickwall: :mallet: :brickwall: :mallet: :brickwall: :mallet: :shoot:
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railmom
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We're on a bridge, Chaaaaaaaaarlie!
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No kidding on the Red Bull, maybe its just youth :psycho: Great info though! What do you think my chances of getting ANY chrome on my Fabuleux due in June? Momma is Black, just a little white on her upper lip and one hind partial white pastern. She really looks like she has no markings at all :( It's funny I took on and off Fabuleux' blanket when I saw him, didn't even notice his socks! I guess I was paying attention to HIM, what a guy! <3 I would love to have some white, any white....If I ever get a foal with four whites and a blaze I will pass out :jaw:
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mareseatoats
Thomas H. Cruise!
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vxf111
Apr 15 2008, 05:19 AM
Just a thought, but breeders whose main goal is color are far more likely to report/post pictures of the foals that got color as opposed to the ones that didn't. Without knowing the entire foal crops, not just the reported ones, I'd think there'd be a major skew in the numbers.

Hey, stop sticking pins in my statistics project!!!! :mallet: Luckily my teacher doesn't know any of this!!! Seriously, though, the stallions in my "study" are not owned by color breeders or promoted as "color" stallions. Otherwise, I'd have been looking at the Art Decos and Spectrums and Spot Pockets of the world, and some of (forget the name) stallions across the pond. These are primarily dressage stallions that happen to have a lot of chrome. Some of the outside mares possibly were bred by individuals looking for color, but that's not their owner's goals at all. They just aren't necessarily the best improvers for my filly who could use a bit better neck set and tad more angulation in her hock.

Railmom, I didn't even factor in the moms...from the pix, they're a random mix of solids and chromed. Probability of 1 success (foal with chrome) out of 1 trial with a random mare would be 42.6%. And 100% chance of black base coat (bay if your mare carries agouti gene), since in 122 foals he sired 121 black or bay (and 1 gray), so is very likely homozygous for black.

Sing Mia Song. Sooo sorry. 5'3", 120 pounds, more salt than pepper these days. Even better (or more mercifully, depending on pov) every time a chapter heading has the word "linear" teacher says, "we're not doing that section!" :lol: :lol: :lol:

I don't have a recent pick of her (except undeveloped in my camera) but was jut thinking the other day I need to take some more pronto. Every year her rabicano gets more extreme. This year, her entire body from withers on back is heavily roaned. Her belly is roaned to a creamy grey. And her skunk tail, which used to be mostly just at the top, is developing into stripes down the sides. The roan stripe that extends up the base of her neck is the only thing that hasn't increased. It looks fainter this year, but I think that may be because the rest of her is so roaned!

Here is the winner, Pointmaker:

http://www.davidventura.com/point.htm
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vxf111
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Didn't mean to be critical... just pointing it out. Didn't know if it was one of those papers where you get points not only for the statistics but also for explaining your reasoning and thinking of ways to improve the study in the future.
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mareseatoats
Thomas H. Cruise!
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vxf111
Apr 15 2008, 05:47 PM
Didn't mean to be critical... just pointing it out. Didn't know if it was one of those papers where you get points not only for the statistics but also for explaining your reasoning and thinking of ways to improve the study in the future.

Why do I suspect that's exactly what you intended? :P

This is an introductory level statistics class. We have to show some description (tables and charts), some probability equations and some inferential equations, and some conclusions.

The biggest challenge was coming up with a study I could collect data on and complete within couple weeks that demonstrated a subject about which I was clueless. So my initial idea has evolved each week as we covered a new chapter and I had a clue as to what needed to be included.

And yes, it is flawed. I'm fully aware it doesn't take into account the mare's genetic contribution. I had no way to collect data on the mares in any time frame, let alone a day or two. Doesn't matter. It's not real.

However, I did very specifically choose stallions that aren't standing with "color breeders," so the mares would be about as random as sport horse breeders get. The mares are mostly warmbloods, some t-breds, and a couple arabs here and there. A mix of solids and minimal chrome, with a couple sabino, but not a lot. I didn't see any pinto mares at all. But again, that simply was not feasible for this class.

Anyway, *my* fantasy breeding program is for color, not theirs. It created a scenario for an easy to define binomial probability -- a lot easier than choosing stallions that stamp neck set and then looking at the foals to assess the result. Then I would have been stuck with 1 stallion, Rosenthal! :lol: )

I do think the apparent correlation between sabino expression and body color, though, may be real and merits further study if it hasn't already been done (although it probably has).
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vxf111
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I really can't tell your tone over the internet, but honestly-- my goal in life is not to rain on the parade of your statistics project! :lol: I hope you do well, and you're right-- the prof is unlikely to know anything about horses and I am sure your idea will be more creative than most.

I do recall reading some preliminary studies that indicated that certain pinto patterns did express differently on different base coats. I can't now find the article, maybe you can if you google-- but overo tended to express better on chestnut and sabino on bay. I wish I could find the article, but they seemed to think that there were multiple genes involved with sabino that affected its ability to express. I know tobiano in APHAs expresses nearly exclusively on bay base coat. You rarely see a chestnut with wild tobiano, and when you do it's usually tovero (tobiano and overo).
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mareseatoats
Thomas H. Cruise!
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I'm just at an age that whenever somebody says or writes, "I don't mean to be [fill in blank]" my immediate response is, "sure you do!" :lol:

I wish my project was the most creative, but one of my classmates decided his project very early on. He's looking at baseball statistics to make the case for some player to get into the hall of fame. I was impressed -- at the time I was still struggling for any idea and trying not to :spew: about it all.

I did enjoy talking with the teacher about my project. I got into talking about the likelihood of fillies vs colts. When I started blathering on about y sperm being faster swimmers, but shorter-lived than x, and live cover versus fresh cooled versus frozen semen, collection methods and so on... :teehee: :point: he just looked pretty uncomfortable and approved it fast :one:
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vxf111
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Eh, your project is better than sabermetrix. That's not all that creative, tons of people crunch baseball statistics all day long! :)
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