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2010 World Cup Qualifying
Topic Started: Sep 9 2008, 05:12 AM (3,174 Views)
Manzanares
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Amazingly the decision on whether the 2nd place teams will be placed into a blind draw or if they'll be seeded based on their FIFA rankings has not yet been made! This to me is scandalous and implies that they are waiting to see if some giants like France, Russia or Germany and Croatia make the playoffs so they can then devise a system where they avoid one another. Should not the basis for choosing whom the playoff teams would meet have been determined previously?

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Mr. Pither
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Manzanares,Sep 28 2009
10:02 AM
Amazingly the decision on whether the 2nd place teams will be placed into a blind draw or if they'll be seeded based on their FIFA rankings has not yet been made!  This to me is scandalous and implies that they are waiting to see if some giants like France, Russia or Germany and Croatia make the playoffs so they can then devise a system where they avoid one another.  Should not the basis for choosing whom the playoff teams would meet have been determined previously?

I agree with Manzanares that it was ridicuolous that the playoff system was not previously decided upon. Yesterday they came up with a solution which not surprisingly protects the better known nations, the top four teams qualifying for the playoff, based on their FIFA rankings will be placed in one pot and the boottom four in another and there will then be a draw where a higher seed will play a lower seed. Thus we will not see France playing whomever between Germany and Russia finishes second in their group. That also means Bosnia, having a wonderful qualifying series faces the distinct possibility of facing France or Germany/Russia in the playoffs.
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valenciano
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Mr. Pither,Sep 30 2009
08:59 AM
Manzanares,Sep 28 2009
10:02 AM
Amazingly the decision on whether the 2nd place teams will be placed into a blind draw or if they'll be seeded based on their FIFA rankings has not yet been made!  This to me is scandalous and implies that they are waiting to see if some giants like France, Russia or Germany and Croatia make the playoffs so they can then devise a system where they avoid one another.   Should not the basis for choosing whom the playoff teams would meet have been determined previously?

I agree with Manzanares that it was ridicuolous that the playoff system was not previously decided upon. Yesterday they came up with a solution which not surprisingly protects the better known nations, the top four teams qualifying for the playoff, based on their FIFA rankings will be placed in one pot and the boottom four in another and there will then be a draw where a higher seed will play a lower seed. Thus we will not see France playing whomever between Germany and Russia finishes second in their group. That also means Bosnia, having a wonderful qualifying series faces the distinct possibility of facing France or Germany/Russia in the playoffs.

Sounds like the solution they came up with is a hybrid between a staright draw and one where seeding is entirely based on FIFA rankings. But as others wrote it does put a big burden on the lower seeded second place teams. Get out the calculators in the next 10 days to figure out who ends up as the eight best 2nd place teams and then how they'll be seeded. UEFA as always tries and makes it as difficult as possible!
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Nkono
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France are pretty well positioned to finish second in their group but they are going into their last two qualifiers against Faroes and Austria without either Yoann Gourcuff or Frank Ribery. Should be interesting then to see whom Domenech picks to run the team. Bafetimbi Gomis is taking Ribery's roster spot but obviously is not a midfielder. I am going to guess Abou Diaby will play a little farther forward in midfield while Govou on a wing will also help in some of the team's creative play. Against Faroes, France may need more direct play but in the final game against Austria, Diaby and Govou I think will be required to be the team's creative players. I also think this opens up a chance for Benzema who likes to drop deep and receive the ball. With Ribery out, Domenech may give Benzema the chance to start, something the player has been publicly claiming he should do ever since Anelka took his place in the starting team.

France should win both of these remaining home matches but unless Romania can defeat Serbia in Belgrade and Lithuania ties Serbia in Lithuania (or Romania ties and Lithuania wins) then Serbia will claim the automatic place and France will have to wait for the playoffs. Right now Serbia leads by 4 points, and has a vastly superior goal difference, going into these final two games. So assuming France takes 6 points from the last two matches, Serbia just will need 2 points to qualify.
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raconteur
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Slovakia are on the verge of their first World Cup qualification since the nation split off from the old Czechoslovakia in 1993. The Slovaks need only 1 point in their remaining two games, home to 2nd place Slovenia and away to Poland, in order to book their trip to South Africa.

Here is an article on Slovakia and their coach Vladimir Weiss, whose teenage son is also a member of the national team:

http://sports.yahoo.com/sow/news?slug=reu-...uters&type=lgns

The big matchup in Europe this weekend though is Russia hosting Germany, this game will determine which of the two wins the group and which ends up going to the playoff. Germany just need a draw on Moscow's artifical surface to take control of the group.

The expected starting lineups for both teams from Reuters:

Russia: Igor Akinfeyev; Alexander Anyukov, Sergei Ignashevich, Vasily Berezutsky, Renat Yanbayev or Yuri Zhirkov; Igor Denisov, Sergei Semak, Vladimir Bystrov, Konstantin Zyryanov; Andrei Arshavin, Pavel Pogrebnyak or Alexander Kerzhakov

Germany: Manuel Neuer; Philipp Lahm, Per Mertesacker, Heiko Westermann, Marcel Schaefer; Michael Ballack, Thomas Hitzlsperger; Bastian Schweinsteiger, Mesut Ozil, Lukas Podolski; Mario Gomez

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SuperEagle
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The Russia-Germany game looks really good. I read where Germany have been practicing on an artifical surface to prepare themselves for the playing field in Moscow. But Mario Gomez at forward? This is his chance to show he belongs on the national team. Personally I think Klose is a more complete player. The battle between Andre Arshavin and Phillip Lahm will be fun to watch. two of the best players in Europe at their respective positions. Joachim Low was often given credit for being the tactical brains behind Jurgen Klinsmann's success as Germany coach, now it is time for Low to show what he can do on his own. Getting to the Euro 2008 was a good accomplishment but this match is probably Germany's biggest since then.
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Merengue
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An excellent game between Germany and Russia which ended 1-0 in favor of Germany. Joachim Low may be listening to you Supereagle as Klose started instead of Gomez and when Ozil exchanged passes with Podolski on the left, it was Ozil's low cross whcih was stabbed home by Klose for the game's only goal. He scored as he just beat the defender to the ball and scored as he was falling down, for us old timers it looked like a Gerd Muller goal.

Exciting end to end game, especially in the 1st half and Podolski had a goalbound shot cleared away while Russia created plenty of danger themselves mostly through Arshavin and Bystrov, the latter of whom drove Westerman crazy and eventually forced debutant Jerome Boateng to foul him and earn his 2nd yellow with 25 minutes left.

Rene Adler to me is Germany's top keeper and he played very well today. Looked like Bystrov could have been fouled inside the box late in the game by sub Friedrich, but the ref waved it on. Wouldn't have changed the ultimate result which is Germany automatically qualifying as they'd have done so with a win or a draw. I don't think many teams will look forward to playing Russia in the playoffs, their passing game is excellent, to me all they lack is a legit threat at center forward to be a real contender next summer in South Africa.
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Manzanares
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Saturday's scores:

World Cup qual. - Europe (Group 1)
Denmark 1 - 0 Sweden
Portugal 3 - 0 Hungary

World Cup qual. - Europe (Group 2)
Luxembourg 0 - 3 Switzerland
Greece 5 - 2 Latvia
Israel 3 - 1 Moldova

World Cup qual. - Europe (Group 3)
Czech Republic 2 - 0 Poland
Slovakia 0 - 2 Slovenia

World Cup qual. - Europe (Group 4)
Finland 2 - 1 Wales
Russia 0 - 1 Germany
Liechtenstein 0 - 2 Azerbaijan

World Cup qual. - Europe (Group 5)
Armenia 1 - 2 Spain
Estonia 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina
Belgium 2 - 0 Turkey

World Cup qual. - Europe (Group 6)
Belarus 4 - 0 Kazakhstan
Ukraine 1 - 0 England

World Cup qual. - Europe (Group 7)
Austria 2 - 1 Lithuania
Serbia 5 - 0 Romania
France 5 - 0 Faroe Islands

World Cup qual. - Europe (Group 8)
Cyprus 4 - 1 Bulgaria
Montenegro 2 - 1 Georgia
Ireland 2 - 2 Italy


Where to start with all of this, Ok the teams who automatically qualified for South Africa today: Germany, Serbia, Denmark, Italy.

Those that assured second place and wait upon Wednesday's results; Russia, France, Bosnia, Ireland.

Team which took a big step towards second place: Portugal

Team which blew a great opportunity: Sweden

Group which are up for grabs: Group 2 (Switzerland and Greece), Group 3 (Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic).

I saw both the Denmark-Sweden game and Portugal-Hungary. The Scandinavian battle was a pretty even one but Denmark did a good job of restricting sweden's chances. Hey, Henrik Larsson unretired again and was up front for Sweden with Ibrahimovic! Neither did much against Agger and Kjaer, a pair of rugged centerbacks. The game winner was scored with about 8 minutes left by Jakob Poulsen whose shot from outside the box took a bounce just in front of Isaksson the Swedish keeper, giving him no chance to stop it. Earlier Isaksson had made a nice save from J. Poulsen's ehader. i woner if he is any relation to JUventus' Christian who also playe din midfield for the danes?

The loss was very costly for Sweden because Portugal's 3-0 win over Hungary moved them ahead of Sweden by 1 point with a match to play. Portugal are home to Malta and a win there as would be expected and they finish 2nd no matter what Sweden do. Good game from Simao (wish he could start doing that for Atletico madrid!), Ronaldo near the end line turned and fired a low shot which the goalie pushed away but Simao knocked in the rebound. Portugal controlled play and put Hungary under a lot of pressure and it finally paid off in the 2nd half when Leidson headed in a Bruno Silva cross for the 2nd. A few minutes later, a poor clearance was intercepted by portugal and the ball was crossed to the far post to Simao who volleyed in his 2nd and the team's 3rd. Solid win for Portugal who looked in deep trouble afew months ago and now are a win over Malta away from advancing to the playoffs where they'll be one of the seeded teams.
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raconteur
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Iaquinta sets up Gilardino for a late goal to help Italy pull out a 2-2 draw in Dublin. Exciting game which was well playe dby both teams. Nice long range goal by Ireland's Whelan which Camoranesi equalized with a header off a corner. St Ledger put Ireland up again until injury time when Iaquinta beautifully set Gilardino, who came on as a sub for DiNatale, to tie it. I'll take the result and the automatic passage to South Africa. Ireland are a pretty good young team an dhave a good coach in Trappatoni but Italy responded to the pressure of playing away and once again pulled off a positive result.

I just wish Lippi would stop using Legrottaglie on defense. I know Cannavaro was suspended but there are better central defenders in Serie A than Legrottaglie.

Lippi has almost 9 months now to fine tune this team. I don't think the team we'll see in June will be the same as what we saw today.

A painful loss by Sweden. They held out for 80+ minutes in Copenhagen but that nice bouncing shot beat Isaksson. Portugal's subsequent win puts them in the driver's seat to finish 2nd behind group winners Denmark.

Serbia crushed Romania 5-0 to clinch their trip to South Africa. Now that is an impressive triumph. Every World Cup they make Yugoslavia/Serbia look like a talented team but they always find ways to stub their toes. One World Cup that will end, maybe next year will be that tournament?
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shelsoccer
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Sweden is toast. Sigh.

Lagerback held on to too many of the old generation for too long and paid the price, presumably with his job.

However, congrats to Denmark. Unlike Sweden, their old generation managed to deliver. I don't expect much from Denmark in S. Africa, but they won't be a walk-over for any opponent.
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Merengue
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Lagerbeck has said he will step down if Sweden fail to make it to the playoffs. How long has he been in the job? I know for awhile he was co-coach with Soderberg but if you include that time and his period as the sole coach, lagerbeck must surely eb the longest serving national team coach in the world. At least the longest serving in any major federation.

Bad news for Real Madrid and Portugal as Cristiano Ronaldo reinjured his ankle and likely will be out for a month. Against Malta I don't think Portugal will miss him too much but Real Madrid definitely will.
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Mr. Pither
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Merengue,Oct 10 2009
11:41 AM
An excellent game between Germany and Russia which ended 1-0 in favor of Germany. Joachim Low may be listening to you Supereagle as Klose started instead of Gomez and when Ozil exchanged passes with Podolski on the left, it was Ozil's low cross whcih was stabbed home by Klose for the game's only goal. He scored as he just beat the defender to the ball and scored as he was falling down, for us old timers it looked like a Gerd Muller goal.

Exciting end to end game, especially in the 1st half and Podolski had a goalbound shot cleared away while Russia created plenty of danger themselves mostly through Arshavin and Bystrov, the latter of whom drove Westerman crazy and eventually forced debutant Jerome Boateng to foul him and earn his 2nd yellow with 25 minutes left.

Rene Adler to me is Germany's top keeper and he played very well today. Looked like Bystrov could have been fouled inside the box late in the game by sub Friedrich, but the ref waved it on. Wouldn't have changed the ultimate result which is Germany automatically qualifying as they'd have done so with a win or a draw. I don't think many teams will look forward to playing Russia in the playoffs, their passing game is excellent, to me all they lack is a legit threat at center forward to be a real contender next summer in South Africa.

Well said Merengue. Klose's goal did look like something straight out of Gerd Muller's repertoire. A low cross from the wing and Klose beating his man to the ball, ending up on the ground and the ball in the back of the net. Der Bomber would have loved that goal!

Russia had their opportunities but were stopped by Adler's strong play in Germany's goal and by their own wayward finishing. Again I think Merengue makes a good point about Russia lacking a legitimate center forward. Pavyluchenko looked like he had the possibilities to become a good forward but his move to Spurs has so far not paid off and he is stalling professionally. But Bystrov really played well and looks like Russia's next valuable export.

Denmark always is a difficult opponent in the World Cup. They don't always qualify but when they do they are successful, in every World Cup Denmark has appeared in they've advanced to at least the second round (1986, 1998, 2002.) I would not bet against them in 2010.
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Don Balon
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Turkey were such a revelation at Euro 2008 with their last minute heroics on the way to a semifinal place but they have to be one of the biggest disapointments in Europe during World Cup qualification as they won't even make the playoffs and coach Fatih Terim, the architect of their 2008 success is quitting. But give credit to Bosnia who finished 2nd in the group beind Spain and seem to have a good group of players developing at the same time-Dzeko, Ibesevic, Misimovic, etc.

The Sweden fans here won't be happy at their apparent elimination but personally I am happy to see Portugal will have the opportunity, if they defeat Malta, to advance to the playoffs. To me they are one of the more entertaning teams in the world to watch and I'll be hoping they can make it to South Africa. After a horrible start to qualifying they've responded to the pressure of must win matches and they could be a force to deal with at the World Cup. Often times nations which survive qualifying after an initial scare rebound to do well in a World Cup. Portugal has the talent to do that next year now that their coach has had more time to formulate his team. Remember Queiroz was new to the team and suddenly had the pressure of needing to win qualifying games while he was still implementing his ideas and strategy.
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Manzanares
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Here then are the situations in the various groups:

Group 1
Denmark-qualified
Portugal win vs Malta and they qualify for playoffs, if they don't win and Sweden defeats Albania, Sweden goes. Hungary has a mathematical chance but they must beat Denmark by 5 goals and hope both Portugal and Sweden lose.

Group 2
per Wikipedia:

On the final matchday (14 October):

Switzerland will qualify for the World Cup if:
they do not lose to Israel, OR
Greece do not defeat Luxembourg.
Switzerland will finish second and qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
they lose to Israel AND Greece defeat Luxembourg.
Greece will qualify for the World Cup if:
they defeat Luxembourg AND Switzerland lose to Israel.
Greece will finish second and qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
Israel do not defeat Switzerland AND:
Greece do not lose to Luxembourg, OR
Latvia do not defeat Moldova, OR
Greece lose to Luxembourg AND Latvia defeat Moldova AND:
the combined margin in those two games is six goals or fewer, OR
the combined margin is exactly seven goals AND Latvia score at most three more goals than Greece.
Israel will finish second and qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
they defeat Switzerland AND Greece do not defeat Luxembourg.
Latvia will finish second and qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
they defeat Moldova AND Israel do not defeat Switzerland AND Greece lose to Luxembourg AND:
the combined margin of Latvia's victory and Greece's loss is eight goals or greater, OR
the combined margin is exactly seven goals AND Latvia score at least four more goals than Greece.


Group 3
On the final matchday (14 October):

Slovakia will qualify for the World Cup if:
they defeat Poland, OR
Slovenia do not defeat San Marino.
Slovenia will qualify for the World Cup if:
they defeat San Marino AND Slovakia do not defeat Poland.
Slovenia will finish second and qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
they defeat San Marino AND Slovakia defeat Poland, OR
they do not defeat San Marino AND Czech Republic and Northern Ireland draw, OR
they draw with San Marino AND Northern Ireland defeat Czech Republic, OR
they lose to San Marino AND Northern Ireland defeat Czech Republic AND:
the combined margin of those two games is six goals or fewer, OR
the combined margin is exactly seven goals AND Northern Ireland do not score three more goals than Slovenia.
Czech Republic will finish second and qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
they defeat Northern Ireland AND Slovenia do not defeat San Marino
Northern Ireland will finish second and qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
they defeat Czech Republic AND Slovenia lose to San Marino AND:
the combined margin of those two games is eight goals or greater, OR
the combined margin is exactly seven goals AND Northern Ireland score at least three more goals than Slovenia.


Group 4
Germany have qualified for the World Cup
Russia are in the playoffs

Group 5
Spain have qualified for the World Cup
Bosnia are in the playoffs

Group 6
England have qualified for the World Cup
On the final matchday (14 October):

Ukraine will finish second and qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
they defeat Andorra, OR
Croatia lose to Kazakhstan, OR
Croatia draw with Kazakhstan AND:
Ukraine draw with Andorra or lose by no more than three goals, OR
Ukraine lose by four goals but score at least three more goals than Croatia.
Croatia will finish second and qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
they defeat Kazakhstan AND Ukraine do not defeat Andorra, OR
they draw with Kazakhstan AND:
Ukraine lose to Andorra by five or more goals, OR
Ukraine lose to Andorra by four goals and score at most one more goal than Croatia.


Group 7
Serbia have qualified for World Cup
France are in the playoffs

Group 8
Italy have qualified for World Cup
Ireland are in the playoffs

Group 9
Netherlands have qualified for the World Cup
Norway finish in 2nd place but have the poorest record of all 2nd place finishers, they only make playoffs under this scenario,

On the final matchday (14 October)

Norway will qualify for UEFA Play-offs if:
In Group 1:
Portugal lose to Malta by at least three goals AND:
Sweden draw with Albania (if Portugal lose by exactly three goals, Sweden must also score five more goals than Portugal) AND Hungary do not defeat Denmark by five or more goals, OR
Sweden do not defeat Albania AND Hungary defeat Denmark by at most four goals AND:
the combined margin of Hungary's win and Portugal's loss is at least eight goals, OR
the combined margin is exactly seven goals AND Hungary score at least five more goals than Portugal.

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Merengue
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Switzerland will qualify for the World Cup if:
they do not lose to Israel, OR
Greece do not defeat Luxembourg.


Israel are the king of drawn matches in Europe but it is hard to imagine them defeating Switzerland in Switzerland so you'd have to think the Swiss have the advantage over Greece in getting out of Group 2. Greece are likely going to the playoffs.

Look at Group 3:

Slovakia will qualify for the World Cup if:
they defeat Poland, OR
Slovenia do not defeat San Marino.
Slovenia will qualify for the World Cup if:
they defeat San Marino AND Slovakia do not defeat Poland.


So Slovakia has to defeat Poland in Poland, possible but not easy. Slovenia will beat San Marino, that is perhaps the weakest team in all of Europe, even Faroe Islands and Malta laugh at San Marino! But if a miracle somehow happens and San marino wins then a winner between czech Republic and Northern Ireland can make the playoffs. Unlikely. I'm thinking Slovenia gets the automatic berth with Slovakia heading to the playoffs.

Group 6

Looks like Ukraine, needing to beat minnows Andorra, are in the driver's seat for the playoff spot ahead of Croatia.
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