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Euro 2008 Qualifying
Topic Started: Mar 22 2007, 08:27 AM (1,994 Views)
Simon
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So I've been typecast have I? ;) You should realise that it's cruel and unusual to expect me as an England fan to write about Euro 2008! As far as I'm concerned, the main sporting focus of the coming summer will be Lancashire's campaign in the County Cricket Championship! :P But okay, here we go...

Group A
http://www.uefa.com/competitions/euro/stan...group=2630.html
15:00 Finland (pld 12, 20 pts) v Azerbaijan (pld 10, 5 pts)
20:30 Poland (pld 12, 24 pts) v Belgium (pld 12, 15 pts)
20:45 Serbia (pld 12, 20 pts) v Kazakhstan (pld 12, 7 pts)
22:00 Portugal (pld 12, 23 pts) v Armenia (pld 10, 9 pts)

Most of us would regard Poland as having 'qualified' for a fair while now, but they still haven't mathematically done it. They'll be guaranteed a finals spot with victory over Belgium on Saturday, although Portugal, Serbia or Finland could yet take top spot from them in what has been an open group. As discussed earlier in the thread, Portugal have had a stuttering campaign but the finish line is now in sight. They should beat Armenia at home before hosting Finland in what could well prove the decider. Of course Serbia are right in the mix as well and the fact that the top four teams all have eminently winnable home games on Saturday should mean that this group remains very much alive by Wednesday.

Group B
http://www.uefa.com/competitions/euro/stan...group=2631.html
18:00 Scotland (pld 11, 24 pts) v Italy (pld 10, 23 pts)
19:00 Lithuania (pld 10, 10 pts) v Ukraine (pld 10, 16 pts)

Auguably the most interesting group approaches its conclusion. Unlike England, Scotland at least have their fate in their own hands. If they can win a home game, they're through to the European Championships. It's only unfortunate that that home game happens to be against world champions Italy! A Scottish win would also mean France would require just a point in Ukraine on Wednesday to qualify ahead of Italy. If the game in Glasgow is drawn, Scotland would qualify only if Italy lose to the Faroe Islands or France lose in Ukraine. So a massive game in prospect in Scotland this weekend. Italy's historic record is certainly patchy in such important matches against apparently weaker opposition - we can all remember instances where they've unexpectedly lost out, the most recent being against South Korea in 2002 and in going out in the group stage of Euro 2004. One interesting fact - the team that has scored first has won each of Scotland's 11 qualifiers.

Group C
http://www.uefa.com/competitions/euro/stan...group=2632.html
18:00 Moldova (pld 11, 9 pts) v Hungary (pld 10, 12 pts)
19:00 Norway (pld 10, 20 pts) v Turkey (pld 10, 18 pts)
20:30 Greece (pld 10, 25 pts) v Malta (pld 10, 5 pts)

So European champions Greece have already qualified after securing at least a top two finish. Recent damaging results for Bosnia mean that they have dropped out of the reckoning and so we're left with a straight fight between Norway and Turkey for second place. Naturally this lends critical importance to the match between these two nations in Oslo on Saturday. Turkey carry some really bad form into this game, recent results include defeat in Bosnia, draws with Malta and Moldova and a home defeat against arch rivals Greece. Meanwhile Norway's results have been good, allowing them to leapfrog the Turks. Even Rosenborg are doing brilliantly in the CL! I would think this game gives Norway a good chance to finish the job.

Group D
http://www.uefa.com/competitions/euro/stan...group=2633.html
16:00 Wales (pld 10, 13 pts) v Republic of Ireland (pld 11, 16 pts)
20:00 Germany (pld 10, 23 pts) v Cyprus (pld 10, 14 pts)
20:30 Czech Republic (pld 10, 23 pts) v Slovakia (pld 10, 13 pts)

Not a huge deal to say here, as Germany and the Czech Republic have already both qualified. Nevertheless, some interest remains as the Czechs play their Slovakian neighbours in a kind of Bohemian derby, while there's a British Isles derby between Wales and Ireland. Most of the Irish players are first team regulars in the Premier League, while many of the Welsh players are either not first team regulars or play their football in England's lower divisions. As such, the fact that a Welsh win in Cardiff would move them level on points with Ireland and with a game in hand reflects on the extent of Ireland's under-achievement. Also, we still don't really know how good Germany are, and their home fixture with Cyprus is unlikely to provide many clues. They seem likely to finish second in the group after some unconvincing displays against their nearest rivals, even if their 3-0 home loss to the Czechs came after they'd already qualified.

Group E
http://www.uefa.com/competitions/euro/stan...group=2634.html
18:00 Andorra (pld 10, 0 pts) v Estonia (pld 11, 4 pts)
19:00 Israel (pld 10, 17 pts) v Russia (pld 10, 21 pts)
20:00 F.Y.R. Macedonia (pld 10, 11 pts) v Croatia (pld 10, 26 pts)

Ah, Group E. England are in friendly action against Austria in Vienna, which might be seen as handy preparation against one of the Euro 2008 hosts were we to actually qualify. Everything hinges on Israel either winning or drawing against Russia. Russia will progress with two wins, and their final fixture is one they will certainly win against Andorra. Croatia need one point from their final two games. There is a scenario in which Macedonia could beat Croatia which would allow England to progress at Croatia's expense with a 3-0 win over the Croats at Wembley on Wednesday. But it's all 'if if if' for England. Sadly, if the prospect of Russia slipping up in Israel seems too good to be true, that's because it probably is. A win for Croatia in Macedonia would confirm them as group winners.

Group F
http://www.uefa.com/competitions/euro/stan...group=2635.html
17:00 Latvia (pld 10, 9 pts) v Liechtenstein (pld 11, 7 pts)
20:45 Northern Ireland (pld 10, 17 pts) v Denmark (pld 10, 17 pts)
22:00 Spain (pld 10, 22 pts) v Sweden (pld 10, 23 pts)

Sweden are very close to qualification. It would take an unlikely combination of results and head-to-head comparisons to stop them. They require just one point from their final two games against Spain and Latvia to make sure. Spain will also book their ticket to Austria and Switzerland if they can get two points from their final two games. For both Denmark and Northern Ireland, things are more complicated. They both need to win both of their remaining two games and hope results elsewhere go their way. This means, as they're playing each other in Belfast, that one or both of them must drop out on Saturday. The smart money would be on Spain to top the group with a home win, and for Sweden to join them in the finals.

Group G
http://www.uefa.com/competitions/euro/stan...group=2636.html
17:00 Bulgaria (pld 10, 19 pts) v Romania (pld 10, 26 pts)
20:00 Albania (pld 10, 11 pts) v Belarus (pld 10, 7 pts)
20:30 Netherlands (pld 10, 23 pts) v Luxembourg (pld 11, 3 pts)

Romania will be pleased to have already secured qualification ahead of what could have been a tricky trip to Bulgaria. Holland are all but through, they need only beat either Luxembourg or Belarus to qualify. Things do not seem to be too healthy with the Dutch national team, they have had dreadful problems scoring goals in these qualifiers. Expect them to clinch their place in the finals with a 1-0 home win against Luxembourg!
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Hector
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Wonderful job Simon, you've really cleared this qualifying situation up in each group. For Spain which is where my interest is placed needs to beat Sweden or a draw combined with a Northern Ireland-Denmark draw and they'll qualify automatically. The qualifying began uneasily for Spain with their post World Cup slump but they've recovered well and that was most clearly shown when they beat Denmark away last month.

I agree with Simon that Groups A, B and E are where the real drama will take place this next week. In Group C that direct game between Norway and Turkey also will be a dramatic one. Both countries are wildly inconsistent so trying to predict a winner there won't be easy although as Simon wrote, Norway at home do have the advantage.
iPuerta amigo, Sevilla esta contigo!
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rosarino
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Yes you did well Simon in setting this preview up. I'm looking forward to Scotland-Italy. The Scots just seem like a transformed team when they play at home but if there is one team in the world that can go on the road, play a defensive game and look for a goal off a set piece or counter it is Italy. Watch out for a guy like Pirlo in a game like this. But Scotland have that direct all action style which can unsettle a team, even one as talented defensively as Italy. This looks to me like the game of the weekend from Europe.
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Manzanares
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Scotland-Italy does look like an exciting one and I agree with rosarino that Scotland's style especially at home makes it tough for their opponents to settle. But Italy are probably one of the best teams in the world in dealing with those types of circumstances and the combativeness of Gattuso and Ambrosini will show in this game. Ukraine may now be eliminated but they'll give France a difficult game in Kiev next week so even a draw between Scotland and Italy won't be a killer of either teams' hopes.

I discuss more about Spain and Sweden in the Spain froum but Hector is correct a draw between Denmark and Northern Ireland would qualify Spain and Sweden no matter what the result in the game between them. Sweden have some injury worries to Elmander, Linderoth and Ljungberg but Spain are coming in the game healthy. Their main concern is whether to start two forwards and sit Cesc or play Cesc with a single forward in front of him. An interesting lineup decision awaits Aragones.

Simon I understand your pessimism. As a Spain fan we always feel the same about our national team but England aren't as dead as you think. Israel are a difficult team to beat at home and Russia usually aren't good travelers. Russia winning that game in Israel is far from a certainty and if I understand correctly anything other than a Russia win there keeps Engalnd's hopes alive.
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Hector
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I think Israel will at least hold Russia to a draw. I don't see Russia winning that game away as they usually play poorly away from Moscow. If so then you England fans will still have hope and if Croatia wins and knocks out Macedonia that will qualify them and they won't have much to play for against England.

I think Italy will at least get a draw or perhaps sneak out a one goal win at Scotland. The Italian experience will pull them through.
iPuerta amigo, Sevilla esta contigo!
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kevin
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Here's a snapshot accopanyment to Simon's excellent analysis that I did for some friends, which simply shows the teams that still have a chance and who they play:

Group A – no one has qualified yet from this group

Poland: 24 points from 12 games (vs. Belgium; at Serbia)
Portugal: 23 points from 12 games (vs. Armenia; vs. Finland)
Finland: 20 points from 12 games (vs. Azerbaijan; at Portugal)
Serbia: 20 points from 12 games (vs. Kazakhstan; vs. Poland)

Group B – no one has qualified yet

France: 25 points from 11 games (off; at Ukraine)
Scotland: 24 points from 11 games (vs. Italy; off)
Italy: 23 points from 10 games (at Scotland; vs. Faroe Islands)

Group C – Greece has qualified

Greece: 25 points from 10 games (vs. Malta; at Hungary)
Norway: 21 points from 10 games (vs. Turkey; at Malta)
Turkey: 18 points from 10 games (at Norway; vs. Bosnia)

Group D – Germany and Czech Republic have qualified

Germany: 23 points from 10 games (vs. Cyprus; vs. Wales)
Czech Republic: 23 points from 10 games (vs. Slovakia; at Cyprus)

Group E – no one has qualified yet

Croatia: 26 points from 10 games (at Macedonia; at England)
England: 23 points from 11 games (off; vs. Croatia)
Russia: 21 points from 10 games (at Israel; at Andorra)
Israel: 17 points from 10 games (vs. Russia; vs. Macedonia)

Group F – no one has qualified yet

Sweden: 23 points from 10 games (at Spain; vs. Latvia)
Spain: 22 points from 10 games (vs. Sweden; vs. Northern Ireland)
Northern Ireland: 17 points from 10 games (vs. Denmark; at Spain)
Denmark: 17 points from 10 games (at Northern Ireland; vs. Iceland)

Group G – Romania has qualified

Romania: 26 points from 10 games (at Bulgaria; vs. Albania)
Netherlands:23 points from 10 games (vs. Luxemborg; at Belarus)
Bulgaria: 19 points from 10 games (vs. Romania; at Slovenia)

There might be some errors, as I put it together pretty quickly this afternoon.
'Tis better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.
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Yogi
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Well done by both Simon and Kevin, you Manchester United boys have done a good job in summarizing the situation for us all. Are you sure you are not both German with the orderly way you've organized your summaries? :lol:

Scotland-Italy, Norway-Greece, all the games in Group A and Israel-Russia are the real games of interest tomorrow. There usually is a surprise or two in these qualifiers and as long as it doesn't include Scotland winning, I'll be OK with that!

Scotland knows they have to win tomorrow and Italy is as we all know the toughest team in the world to score upon if they are looking primarily to defend. That is why I think Italy has a very good chance going into the game at Glasgow.
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Simon
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Yogi,Nov 16 2007
12:23 PM
Well done by both Simon and Kevin, you Manchester United boys have done a good job in summarizing the situation for us all. Are you sure you are not both German with the orderly way you've organized your summaries? :lol:

Haha, that thought hadn't crossed my mind! Yes, thanks to Kevin, that's really useful. There should be quite a few teams culled from that list after today's matches. One small mercy is that England won't be one of them. Even if Russia win today, we'll still be in with a chance. We'll just need Andorra to beat Russia and thus record their second ever competitive win. :rolleyes:

Anyway, England's hopes took a further blow during last night's win in Austria. Michael Owen tore a thigh muscle which will keep him out for about 6 weeks. So we're now without both Rooney and Owen and, just to add insult to injury, even Israel's best player Yossi Benayoun of Liverpool is injured and misses the Russia game.

Balls to football, I'm going to take up fishing!
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Pepe
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Israel must have made a lot of friends in England tonight after their 2-1 win over Rusia. Croatia also lost to Macedonia but still qualified and now England control their own fate needing only a draw at home on Wednesday vs Croatia to qualify.

I saw the enjoyable game between Italy and Scotland, good match with plenty of action, some controversy (a wrongly annulled goal for Italy, a Scottish goal which probably shouldn't have counted and a late Italian winner off a phantom foul). Italy's 2-1 win sends both they and France to Euro 2008 and Scotland falls just short.

Poland classifies with a 2-0 win over Belgium, both goals from Ebi Smolarek. Portugal are close but they only could win 1-0 over Armenia.

Holland are in after a narrow 1-0 win over Luxemburg and Turkey took a big step towards making it too as they came from behind on the road and beat Norway 2-1 with a Nihat Kahveci goal.

Finally Spain qualified after crushing Sweden 3-0 in Madrid as Spain's passing game tore Sweden's defense apart. Northern ireland kept up their slim hopes with a 2-1 win over Denmark as David Healy scored yet another goal for them. Sweden, however, will still qualify with a home draw against Latvia.

A busy and exciting day in Europe.
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gaviota
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Croacia loses and still qualifies, France doesn't play yet makes it, Holland barely beats Luxemburg but qualifies while Portugal struggles to defeat Armenia yet moves closer to clinching qualification. And that isn't even discussing how Russia hit the post in the last minutes of their game only for Israel to turn around and score the game winner on a counter attack, a game winner which hands England a second chance and almost sinks Russia's own chances. And then there is Scotland playing a valiant game and losing in injury time after a questionable foul leads to a free kick. Yes it was a crazy night in Euro qualifying.
CHAMP13NS
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Winslow
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I was bummed to see the Scots lose, but you can't say the Azzurri didn't deserve the win. As Pepe said, the Scots goal looked offside but wasn't called, while the Italian goal that was wiped out for offside wasn't. At the same time, the Scots missed a wide-open net when it was 1-1, and had a sure goal headed off the line by Pirlo just before the first half whistle. But the thing that really sank the Scots was Italy's early goal (70 seconds or so), as Toni took full advantage of some very lax defending.

So Simon, who was the first here to say that Israel would be tough at home? ;)
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Simon
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Yes Winslow, you definitely said that! Mind you, I did recognise how tough Israel are at home, but it still just seemed too good to be true to think that Russia just had to win one game to qualify and they couldn't do it.

As Russian defender Konstantin Zyrianov so eloquently put it, "Basically, we shit our pants". Still, they can do that all they like against Andorra and still win, which means we need a result against Croatia. That will still be pretty tough without either Rooney or Owen, and without either Rio or Terry. It would be terrible to have our fate handed back into our own hands only to still blow it at the final hurdle!

I have to give a mention to two of the other British sides as well. Northern Ireland still have an outside chance of making it, unlike Scotland, but both teams had magnificent campaigns despite initial low expectations. For Scotland to take Italy to the last kick of the game in their final qualifier in such a tough group was a tremendous achievement, hopefully they can build on that in the World Cup qualifiers.
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kevin
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It will be tough to score against Croatia, Simon, without Rooney and Owen, but now that they have qualified and you all only need to draw, things like look in England's favor (or favour). That late winner by Israel was probably bigger than most people really gave it credit for at the time. A strong, organized effort in the back should be enough to get the job done.

'Tis better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.
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kevin
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And here is my updated summary of the standings/qualifiers, all subject to the fact that I didn't really check my work:

Group A – Poland has qualified from this group

Poland: 27 points from 13 games (beat Belgium 2-0; at Serbia)
Portugal: 26 points from 13 games (beat Armenia 1-0; vs. Finland)
Finland: 23 points from 13 games (beat Azerbaijan 2-1; at Portugal)
Serbia: 20 points from 13 games (vs. Kazakhstan was postponed until Saturday; vs. Poland)

Group B – Italy and France have qualified

Italy: 26 points from 11 games (won 2-1 at Scotland; vs. Faroe Islands)
France: 25 points from 11 games (at Ukraine)
Scotland: 24 points from 12 games (lost 2-1 vs. Italy; done) -- ELIMINATED

Group C – Greece has qualified

Greece: 28 points from 11 games (won 5-0 vs. Malta; at Hungary)
Turkey: 21 points from 11 games (won 2-1 at Norway; vs. Bosnia)
Norway: 20 points from 11 games (lost 2-1 vs. Turkey; at Malta)

Group D – Germany and Czech Republic have qualified

Czech Republic: 26 points from 11 games (won 3-0 vs. Slovakia; at Cyprus)
Germany: 26 points from 11 games (won 4-0 vs. Cyprus; vs. Wales)

Group E – Croatia has qualified

Croatia: 26 points from 11 games (lost 2-0 at Macedonia; at England)
England: 23 points from 11 games (off; vs. Croatia)
Russia: 21 points from 11 games (lost 2-1 at Israel; at Andorra)
Israel: 20 points from 11 games (won 2-1 vs. Russia; vs. Macedonia) -- ELIMINATED

Group F – Spain has qualified

Spain: 25 points from 11 games (won 3-0 vs. Sweden; vs. Northern Ireland)
Sweden: 23 points from 11 games (lost 3-0 at Spain; vs. Latvia)
Northern Ireland: 20 points from 11 games (won 2-1 vs. Denmark; at Spain)
Denmark: 17 points from 11 games (lost 2-1 at Northern Ireland; vs. Iceland)

Group G – Romania and Netherlands have qualified

Romania: 26 points from 11 games (lost 1-0 at Bulgaria; vs. Albania)
Netherlands:26 points from 11 games (won 1-0 vs. Luxemborg; at Belarus)
Bulgaria: 22 points from 11 games (won 1-0 vs. Romania; at Slovenia) - ELIMINATED
'Tis better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.
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Hector
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It is often discussed that Spain and England often underachieve at international level, and they do but Russia is another country who continually fail and unlike Spain and England, Russia often fails to even qualify for international tournaments. Not even hiring a successful coach like Hiddink looks like it will help them now. Croatia already qualified and playing on the road, I'd say matters are now in Engalnd's favor to get at the least the draw they need to classify. As kevin points out, that late Israel game winning goal, allows England to just draw and make it to Euro 2008 no matter what Russia does versus Andorra. If the game had remained tied last Saturday in Israel then England would have needed to beat Croatia.

Strangely Turkey seem to play better away from home in these qualifiers and their come from behind win in Norway turned that group upside down but Turkey will still likely need to defeat Bosnia in Turkey in order to classify.
iPuerta amigo, Sevilla esta contigo!
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