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| Elections 2009 | |
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| Topic Started: Nov 6 2009, 09:24 PM (76 Views) | |
| Shimkovic | Nov 6 2009, 09:24 PM Post #1 |
King of the Empire, Prince of the HSR of Shimkovic
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I'm not going to weigh in just yet, but I was interested in what some of y'all thought of the VA, NJ and NY-23 election results this week? Any surprises? Any indication for the midterms? And what are your early thoughts on the midterms? Also, for our overseas folks, if they're around, do you think the elections we've seen (where the center-right won) are also indicators of what will happen in the UK elections coming up? |
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Chief Justice, Retired Speaker of the General Assembly "Whenever the people are well-informed, they can be trusted with their own government." ~ Thomas Jefferson 
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| sedge | Nov 7 2009, 06:19 AM Post #2 |
Blast from the past
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In the UK, the Conservatives will win the next General Election, but thats not really been affected by international events, its more that the Labour party has run its course (though the state of the economy hasn't helped them). |
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| Bryyo | Nov 7 2009, 11:36 AM Post #3 |
Ex-Prime Minister, Ex-Supreme Court Justice
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I've resented all the discourse about how these elections were somehow a referendum on Obama. I think this is definitely a spin game that the White House shouldn't have lost but they did. Corzine was destined for defeat before Obama even entered office, and Creigh Deeds lost the Attorney General election to McDonnell in 2005, meaning he's been less popular than McDonnell for a long time. The NY-23 seat, on the other hand, the only one directly related to accepting or rejecting Obama's agenda, was a big upset for the GOP. This is a seat the GOP has had for 26(?) years that changed hands to the Democrats. And with all the endorsements in the election from Palin and Pawlenty and whatnot, it's hard to say it was a referendum on Obama and not them. Don't get me wrong, I admit I'm just "polishing the turd." I don't really think that the election was good news for the democrats in 2010, but I think it was far from good news for the GOP. My guess for 2010 is the Dems lose 3 Senate seats and 20 in the House. I could be way off but at the current rate it seems reasonable to me that there will be natural shift back, but nothing huge. |
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| Lhaestaq | Nov 7 2009, 06:55 PM Post #4 |
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Agreed. Though to be honest, I was more disappointed over Maine's repeal of their gay marriage law. |
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Everything passes away - suffering, pain, blood, hunger, pestilence. The sword will pass away too, but the stars will still remain when the shadows of our presence and our deeds have vanished from the earth. There is no man who does not know that. Why, then, will we not turn our eyes towards the stars? Why? -Mikhail Bulgakov Economic Left/Right: -8.25 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -10.00 | |
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| Bryyo | Nov 8 2009, 12:19 AM Post #5 |
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Ex-Prime Minister, Ex-Supreme Court Justice
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I was really disappointed about that, too. But as a Washington state resident I was very happy that Referendum 71 was approved, even though it doesn't fully legalize gay marriage. Nonetheless it makes us the first state in the nation for the citizens to directly approve an expansion of gay rights. |
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| Bryyo | Nov 11 2009, 11:06 PM Post #6 |
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Ex-Prime Minister, Ex-Supreme Court Justice
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What were your thoughts, Shim? |
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| Shimkovic | Nov 12 2009, 08:10 PM Post #7 |
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King of the Empire, Prince of the HSR of Shimkovic
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Well, I think you're spot on with New Jersey and not off with Virginia, but I'd go a bit further. In Virginia, there was considerable coverage towards the end about McDonnell's social conservative pedigree - especially through his Master's thesis (I think it was Masters and not a Doctoral) - but he kept pounding the fiscal conservative credentials around. In New Jersey, Obama threw his support there in an effort to get what I'm going to call Obama Independents to support Corzine. But Corzine was a bad candidate. He was very unpopular and he should've been replaced as the Democrat nominee if the party wanted to avoid the nightmare they found themselves in. What those two showed me is that you can win as a Republican right now if you avoid the socially-conservative issues, focus on the economy and the health care bill (which is a part of the economy right now) you can win a lot of these races, especially the open seats. NY-23 is a strange animal. While there can be a strong argument for the GOP having trouble, I would say this race was not a predicition for other seats. While the Republicans have held the seat since the Civil War, they haven't encountered a GOP nominee who was center to center-left, a Democratic nominee who was center to center-left and a Conservative Party nominee (period). When the GOP backed out she went to the Dem because of the harsh ads from the Conservative. But the root of the Conservativ wasn't so much that the GOP choice was moderate but how she was chosen. New York doesn't have a primary system for special elections. The anger was in the leaders chosing the candidate more than the candidate herself. I honestly don't think the Republicans would've selected her as the nominee if they held a regular primary. That's why these big names went there to support Hoffman, he was the outsider going against the system that doesn't allow primary elections for the Special. But, let's say she did win the nominee and Hoffman still ran. If the results were the same, then it shows that you still need to focus on the fiscal issues; social conservatives won't easily win outside of socially-conservative states (i.e. Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alaska, Utah, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, Wyoming, South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina, Louisiana). If you are a social conservative, focusing on the fiscal issues will get you elected. There's a very large electorate out there that's angry. But they're not angry over abortion or gay marriage (unless it's specifically on the ballot - See: Maine). They're angry because of the budget deficit levels and the high-dollar spending bills passing through Washington. They know the typical trend with high-dollar programs is high-dollar taxes. They know that there is no way the government can spend its way out of a recession (I'm still wary of the double-dip we may see in Q2 2010 which starts in January). If the GOP focuses on that, they could win a good number of seats. I'm not sure if they would take the majority since there aren't that many open seats, but they'll have an easy go at a lot of freshman Dems in battleground districts. |
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Chief Justice, Retired Speaker of the General Assembly "Whenever the people are well-informed, they can be trusted with their own government." ~ Thomas Jefferson
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| Vasi Kovi | Nov 16 2009, 10:56 AM Post #8 |
Annoyingly Liberal
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Well in the UK I personally don't think it is 100% definite that the Tories will win. And if they do (which I admit is the most likely outcome next year if things stay relatively the same as they are now) it will not be with a majority anywhere near the size of Labour's in 1997. With the expenses sacandal you may even see other parties, such as UKIP or the Green Party getting one or two seats in constituencies where the the incumbent has been exposed as exploiting Parliamentary expenses. Whatever happens, I just hope that the BNP do not gain any seats. Thanks to our electoral system it is almost impossible for Nick Griffin (who has said he is gonna run in the Barking Constituency) and other BNPers to get elected. But there are still many months to go (probably). |
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Vasi Kovi, First Consul to The Armed Republic of Vklarria. Liberté, Egalité, Sűreté  Economic Left/Right: -6.88 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.21 | |
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| sedge | Nov 16 2009, 01:05 PM Post #9 |
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Blast from the past
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UKIP's strength is overrated - they could never win a seat, and the same applies to the Greens. Success at local/European level doesn't translate into national support for those parties. The Tories have a 14 point lead (which will probably increase before the inevitable pre-election contraction), and they should get a majority of between 40-100 seats. The Labour party has barely any money - they're actually giving up on seats with low majorities, while the Tories are pretty rich at the moment. *declares interest* - I'm working for the Tories at the moment 
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| Vasi Kovi | Nov 17 2009, 05:25 AM Post #10 |
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Annoyingly Liberal
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Tut tut.
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Vasi Kovi, First Consul to The Armed Republic of Vklarria. Liberté, Egalité, Sűreté Economic Left/Right: -6.88 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.21 | |
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| Shimkovic | Nov 17 2009, 08:51 PM Post #11 |
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King of the Empire, Prince of the HSR of Shimkovic
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I love it! Personally, I'm rooting for the Conservative Party, but that's because I'm a Republican (a real one, not the ones that tout this crap about social this and social that and spend like liberals). But also because I'm a fan of David Cameron. I read Roubini's assessment on the global economy today and wonder how that'll play out. If he's right, like he was with the housing collapse and onset of the recession, than it'll be a hard year for any incumbent power throughout the world next year (esp. in the UK, US, Japan, Germany and France) and the Tories could take over in the UK while the Republicans would see significant gains in the House and Senate (because we are stupid and don't appoint our Senators like the days of old). If he's wrong, like he was in the economy output of Q3 and Q4 (primarily the Fourth Quarter), then we could see modest gains in the House and Senate. I think the Conservatives will take over in the UK but that's more for their little scandal that VK alluded to earlier. Either way, as long as the nut jobs don't win, I'm happy. |
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Chief Justice, Retired Speaker of the General Assembly "Whenever the people are well-informed, they can be trusted with their own government." ~ Thomas Jefferson
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| Vasi Kovi | Nov 18 2009, 10:58 AM Post #12 |
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Annoyingly Liberal
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Ditto. Though would prefer a Labour win, but with David Milliband leading the party, and Tony Blair as EU President. What a dream that would be.
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Vasi Kovi, First Consul to The Armed Republic of Vklarria. Liberté, Egalité, Sűreté Economic Left/Right: -6.88 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.21 | |
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| Shimkovic | Nov 22 2009, 06:54 PM Post #13 |
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King of the Empire, Prince of the HSR of Shimkovic
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Looks like you lost out on Tony Blair. I was a bit surprised at the selections, but I didn't think Blair would get it with the grumbling I had read about. But a Belgian? That one surprised me. Was it just me or did Brown look foolish trying to talk with Cameron during the procession from the House of Commons to the House of Lords last week? Especially considering how much Cameron appeared to not like Brown on a personal level. |
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Chief Justice, Retired Speaker of the General Assembly "Whenever the people are well-informed, they can be trusted with their own government." ~ Thomas Jefferson
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