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Catch 22; Our dilemma
Topic Started: Sep 30 2005, 09:38 AM (338 Views)
cmoehle
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Chris - San Antonio TX
It's an historical fact:

Shiite Leadership Clash in Iran , Iraq
Quote:
 
For centuries, enmity between Arabs and Persians has shaped much of the Middle East - from the Arab conquests of the 7th century to the Iraq-Iran war of the 1980s. Now, with Shiites empowered in postwar Iraq , the gloves are off again. But this time, the antagonists are the Shiite ayatollahs of Iraq , a mainly Arab country, and Iran , formerly Persia .


And it came out last election:

Iran, Iraq, and two Shiite visions
Quote:
 
Amid preparations for pivotal elections Friday in Iran - and later this year in Iraq - analysts see two Shiite visions of democracy vying for dominance. Some say the traditionally "quietist" clergy represented by Iraq's Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is growing more influential at the expense of Iran's all-embracing system of clerical rule embodied by Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

"There is a strong possibility that over time large numbers of lay religious Iranians will switch their allegiance to Sistani, and some of the [Iranian] reformers are said already to have done so"....

Other than ideological differences, the Sadrists also harbor suspicions of Sistani's Iranian background - he speaks Arabic with a thick Persian accent. Many senior clerics in Najaf are of Iranian descent, whereas the Sadrs are Arabs of Iraqi-Lebanese origin.....


Iraqi Shiites have reason to oppose Iranian Shiites...

The Shi'is and the Future of Iraq
Quote:
 
Although Iraqi Shi'is had long been politically marginalized, sectarian confrontation did not become salient until the 1970s, when conflict emerged between the Sunni-dominated Ba'ath Party and the Shi'i Islamic Dawa Party. Despite the apparent influence of Iran's Islamic Revolution, however, Iraqi Shi'is harbored no aspirations to replicate the political theology of the Islamic Republic. The vitality of the Dawa Party was the product of Shi'i frustration with the exclusivity of state politics rather than any desire to follow the Iranian model. The bulk of Dawa's supporters were inhabitants of Baghdad slums and university students who had become disillusioned with the Iraqi Communist Party's failure to bring about political change.

Differences between Iraqi and Iranian Shi'is increased during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War and the Shi'i uprising that followed the Gulf War in 1991. In the former case, Iraqi Shi'is constituted the majority of the Iraqi infantry and fought against their Iranian co-religionists despite Saddam's systematic repression. In the latter case, Iraqi ayatollahs failed to exploit the Shi'i rebellion, offering little in the way of guidance, much less open advocacy for the formation of a separatist Islamic government. Historically, the vast majority of Iraqi Shi'is have rejected calls to implement a political system favoring the rule of the Islamic jurist (velayet y-faqih), instead choosing to reaffirm their commitment to Iraqi nationalism.

Iraqi Shi'is also have a vested interest in preserving the country's territorial integrity. If Iraq were divided into separate statelets following a war, the Shi'is would likely lose Baghdad (where they constitute nearly half the population), the shrine cities of Kazamin and Samara, and any share in the revenues from northern oil wells. Given that they already compose the core of the country's middle class and secular intelligentsia, the Shi'is would much prefer to seek power within a unified postwar Iraq. Moreover, the states that would emerge from a divided Iraq would be too weak to influence regional affairs, whereas a united Iraq might allow Iraqi Shi'is to become a strong regional voice.




Politics is the art of achieving the maximum amount of freedom for individuals that is consistent with the maintenance of social order.
--Barry Goldwater
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5thwheeler
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cmoehle
Oct 2 2005, 08:57 AM
Possible, but the Iraqi Shiites and Iranian Shiites are traditional enemies so such a coalition would end in infighting rather quickly, I think.

True, but given a common enemy, they will unite, if only for the moment. Removing infidels from Mecca would be reason enough.

When it comes to the Middle East, the endless Catch-22 circle keeps getting bigger and bigger.
History 101: When a popular myth is believed to be factual, teach the myth.

Its not possible to underestimate the intelligence of the voting populous.

Hummm, after seeing the results of the 06 election, I may have to modify my perception of the voting populous and refer to them as "Late Bloomers".

:ohmy:
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5thwheeler
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Quote:
 
It would open a tinderbox in the middle east and our oil supplies from these countries would be threatened and we would be forced to take drastic measures such as invading Iran who happens to have a massive well trained army with modern weapons.


Interesting, I was under the impression that their army didn't have modern weapons.

My knowledge of the Iranian military might is at least 20 years old though. Well according to Bush they have Nukes , and they are as modern as one can get. On the other hand, is Bush lying to us... again? :dunno:
History 101: When a popular myth is believed to be factual, teach the myth.

Its not possible to underestimate the intelligence of the voting populous.

Hummm, after seeing the results of the 06 election, I may have to modify my perception of the voting populous and refer to them as "Late Bloomers".

:ohmy:
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5thwheeler
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Get the message?
So much for dancing in the streets!

Quote:
 
Bombing at Shiite Mosque Kills 36
By Louise Roug, Times Staff Writer


BAGHDAD — A suicide bomber attacked a mosque packed with Shiite Muslim worshipers marking the first day of Ramadan on Wednesday evening, killing at least 36 people and wounding 95, Iraqi hospital officials and police said.

The Ibn Nama Hilli Mosque in Hillah, south of Baghdad, was full of mourners who had gathered to remember a restaurant owner slain Monday by insurgents. There were conflicting reports about whether the bomber was in a car or on foot, but several witnesses said a man walked into the mosque carrying explosives around his chest and in a bag.
 
The detonation shot fire through the mosque walls and sent bodies and limbs flying into the street, where flags had been hung to celebrate Ramadan, Islam's holiest month, during which observant believers fast from dawn to dusk. The wail of ambulances rang in the streets for more than an hour as medics tried to evacuate the wounded.

Ahmed Tahir, a 30-year-old neighbor of the slain restaurant owner, said he had attended the ceremony, finished his prayers and walked out into the street, where he met a friend. As they stood chatting, the mosque exploded.

"This is how the terrorists inaugurated this holy month of Ramadan," Tahir said. "But God will not keep silent after this. God's revenge will be severe."

The blood bath came on a day when Iraqi politicians moved to quell sectarian tensions by reversing a controversial decision that would have made it harder for Iraq's draft constitution to be defeated in a national referendum Oct. 15.

Wrangling over the constitution has driven a wedge between Iraq's Sunni Arabs, many of whom oppose the charter, and Shiites and Kurds, who had the largest role in writing the text and who are campaigning for its approval. Shiites and Kurds had pushed the election rule change through the transitional National Assembly on Sunday, angering Sunnis and drawing criticism from U.N. and U.S. officials.

At United Nations headquarters in New York on Wednesday, Secretary-General Kofi Annan praised the assembly's decision to rescind the rule change. "It is very important that the Iraqi parliament reversed itself, because that decision was patently inappropriate, and we made that clear to them," he said.

At the crux of the conflict was how many "no" votes would be needed to defeat the constitution. The country's interim charter stated that the document would take effect if more than half the voters nationwide approved it, unless two-thirds of voters in three or more provinces rejected it.

But lawmakers decided Sunday that for the draft to be defeated, two-thirds of registered voters — rather than two-thirds of those who cast ballots — in three provinces must vote against it.

Saleh Mutlak, chairman of the National Dialogue Council and a leading Sunni member of the constitutional committee, complained that the change "gave a bad signal to the Iraqis, saying that this National Assembly is ready to forge and impose the constitution by force."

Several assembly members said Sunnis had threatened to boycott the referendum unless the vote was reversed.

Shiites and Kurds, though, have feared that violence in advance of the referendum could keep voters away from the polls, skewing the vote in favor of a "no" that they say would not represent the will of Iraq's majority.

Saad Jawad, an assembly member affiliated with the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, a Shiite political party, said the reversal "makes it possible for 1,000 people to defeat the constitution against the will of 10 million." But because his party is "keen that the U.N. takes part," he said, it decided to endorse the reversal at Wednesday's sparsely attended National Assembly session.

Laith Kubba, a spokesman for Prime Minister Ibrahim Jafari, said the move would lend credibility to the political process, even if it meant the constitution might fail. "It's more important that it has the reputation of being transparent," he said.

Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish leader, said the U.N. pressure enabled legislators to change course without appearing as though they were bowing to American or Sunni demands. "They have a good excuse — to say that the U.N. doesn't accept this and thinks it's a violation," he said.

U.S., U.N. and Iraqi officials have hoped the constitution would heal the nation's political and sectarian rifts. But the skirmish over voting rules was yet another controversy that could further alienate Sunnis from the political process. Their participation is seen as vital to bringing down the Sunni-led insurgency and restoring stability.

Annan on Wednesday acknowledged the deep rifts among Iraqis. "We had hoped that this electoral process and the transition arrangements would pull the Iraqis together," he said. "It has not worked as we had hoped, but we still urge the parties to work together, and I believe the reversal by the parliament of the decision … would help the process."

This week, the U.N. began distributing ballots, voting boxes and more than 5 million copies of the constitution around Iraq. U.S. commanders are warning that the coming days could be even more violent than usual, especially in the capital, which averages about 28 attacks a day.

"The insurgents do not want the referendum to pass, do not want the Iraqi people to adopt a new constitution," Army Maj. Gen. William G. Webster, commander of U.S.-led troops in Baghdad, said Wednesday in the capital's heavily fortified Green Zone. "We think they will try to take advantage of this referendum by intimidating voters not to vote, through threats and actual violence."

Wednesday's mosque bombing in Hillah struck a predominantly Shiite town about 60 miles south of the capital. In Najaf, a bomb killed a child and injured four people shortly after midnight. Last Thursday, Balad, a Shiite town 50 miles north of Baghdad, suffered a string of bombings that left at least 100 people dead.

Webster said that U.S. commanders were particularly worried about attacks in Baghdad, which he noted was home to about a quarter of Iraq's 26 million people.

"We believe that the insurgents will try to make a surge in their attacks inside Baghdad because of its value in trying to convince the people that this government cannot protect them, and also in terms of trying to make the results of the election illegitimate," he said.

West of the capital, American and Iraqi forces have launched a large offensive in the Euphrates River valley, seeking to control the unruly area near the Syrian border. Sunnis and others say that continuing military operations in Al Anbar province, a stronghold of insurgents in western Iraq, will hurt voter turnout in that area.

Though Ramadan, which began in Iraq on Tuesday for Sunnis and Wednesday for Shiites, is a month of fasting and spiritual introspection, the insurgent group Al Qaeda in Iraq called on followers this week to step up attacks during the period. Calling for resistance against foreign occupiers, the group urged people to make Ramadan a "month of victory for Muslims and a month of defeat for the hypocrites and polytheists."

Both President Bush in Washington and U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad sent Ramadan greetings to Iraqis on Wednesday before the bombing.

"During Ramadan, as always, our thoughts are with the Iraqi people and our common desire for peace," Khalilzad said in a statement. "I wish the people of Iraq a peaceful, secure and prosperous Ramadan."
History 101: When a popular myth is believed to be factual, teach the myth.

Its not possible to underestimate the intelligence of the voting populous.

Hummm, after seeing the results of the 06 election, I may have to modify my perception of the voting populous and refer to them as "Late Bloomers".

:ohmy:
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