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Pew Survey On Swing Vote
Topic Started: Oct 28 2004, 07:16 PM (69 Views)
cmoehle
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Chris - San Antonio TX
I still think Bush will win. But Swing Voters Slow to Decide, Still Cross-Pressured shows a different trend.

"With less than a week to go before the election, many swing voters have yet to commit to a candidate, but over the past month there has been some movement among this group toward Sen. John Kerry. A Pew Research Center follow-up survey with 519 swing voters ­ who in September were undecided or said they could change their vote ­ finds that about half (52%) have moved off the fence, while nearly as many (48%) still are not certain of how they will vote."

This is summarized in the pie chart below:

Posted Image

And in the following table:

Posted Image

Here is a little more detail:

Posted Image
Politics is the art of achieving the maximum amount of freedom for individuals that is consistent with the maintenance of social order.
--Barry Goldwater
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brewster
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Winemaker Extraordinaire
You still think Bush will win? :tomato:

Didn't my Dad's thief/fool prediction teach you anything? :dunno:

Kerry by a convincing margin (not huge, just convincing). :yes:

The Big Poll, One More Time

A week ago it was showing a Bush trend, now it's Kerry - Dad's never let me down!
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Bow Valley Provincial Park, Kananaskis Country, Alberta
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PRT
Member
I know who I'm voting for, but I cannot say with any kind of certainty which one of them will win. I'm afraid it's going to be a long night next Tuesday and maybe more nights and days after that.
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cmoehle
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Chris - San Antonio TX
Bruce, many things point to Kerry--and yes, I check the Predictor everyday since you linked it--but I just don't see Kerry winning, perhas Bush losing, but not Kerry winning.

(Just found the Predictor's animated map. Looks like a thunderstorm.)
Politics is the art of achieving the maximum amount of freedom for individuals that is consistent with the maintenance of social order.
--Barry Goldwater
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PRT
Member
The animated map is neat, but check the predicted final results.
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cmoehle
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Chris - San Antonio TX
Hmmm. A tie in Florida won't matter? Can there be a tie? What does FL state law say?
Politics is the art of achieving the maximum amount of freedom for individuals that is consistent with the maintenance of social order.
--Barry Goldwater
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PRT
Member
According to the final results map a tie there won't matter.
Heard tonight that Ohio was using punch card ballots. That can't be a good idea. Is it true, or did I hear wrong?
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cmoehle
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Chris - San Antonio TX
Believe I heard that too. People will start naming their baby boys Chad.
Politics is the art of achieving the maximum amount of freedom for individuals that is consistent with the maintenance of social order.
--Barry Goldwater
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