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Kerry Sends 10,000 Lawyers To Polling Places; Sounds like a joke - but not funny!
Topic Started: Oct 20 2004, 01:29 PM (877 Views)
brewster
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Winemaker Extraordinaire
I like my answers better than the ones YOU came up with. :cowboy:
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Bow Valley Provincial Park, Kananaskis Country, Alberta
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teryt
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cmoehle
Oct 22 2004, 10:39 PM
Try posting without using "I" and "you". Competition of opinions in the marketplace of ideas is far more interesting. For example:

1. It indicates that according to their methodology of classifying contributions, which they admit is not easy, at this narrow point in time lawyers are contributing more to Dems.

2. That a single lawyer has an opinion. Not generalizable.

3 Yes, an isolated fact. It does not indicate trends. It does not indicate reasons. It does not indicate association. BTW, the figures indicate nothing at all about a specific group of lawyers, i.e., trial lawyers, nor does it indicate anything generally about the DNC. Just lawyers/law firms and two candidates.

OK, point taken on the personalization - but it does seem to wax personal many times (all your fault). :laugh: :poke:

So in this marketplace, maybe what feelings about these stats as opposed to thoughts would be more relevant.

Therefore, I feel that lawyers are more on the side of democrats & visa versa. (There! I think I can defend my own feelings if nothing else!) :doh:
My Boast is Christ :pray:
Soon to have MBA (I'll perhaps be smart then)
Recovering Perfectionist
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sylley2000
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Sylvia, Grand Bend ON
From that same site:

Top contributors DNC by sector:

http://www.opensecrets.org/parties/sector....=DPC&cycle=2004

Agribusiness $2,150,307
Communic/Electronics $14,041,878
Construction $3,084,411
Defense $729,602
Energy/Nat Resource $2,011,440
Finance/Insur/RealEst $33,817,060
Health $7,300,903
Lawyers & Lobbyists $27,481,688
Transportation $1,863,906
Misc Business $15,449,427
Labor $4,537,679
Ideology/Single-Issue $25,323,341
Other $29,564,133

***

Top contirubutors RNCby sector:

http://www.opensecrets.org/parties/sector....=RNC&cycle=2004

Agribusiness $7,675,713
Communic/Electronics $11,004,910
Construction $12,632,593
Defense $1,504,806
Energy/Nat Resource $8,905,966
Finance/Insur/RealEst $54,921,388
Health $16,508,775
Lawyers & Lobbyists $9,485,043
Transportation $8,050,311
Misc Business $36,354,434
Labor $420,300
Ideology/Single-Issue $6,987,909
Other $37,284,971

You might want to look at the undisclosed factor -- the DNC reported Full Disclosure $145,926,420 (94.4%)94.4% of theirs. The RNC didn't do quite as well Full Disclosure $147,923,780 (91.2%).

About the only conclusion I'd draw from those figures is that the RNC has more than double the budget.

DNC overall Raised:$114,738,161
RNC overall Raised: $256,082,690

Sylvia

Betcha a skilled statistician could read those numbers a LOT of different ways? E.G. Why does the RNC get so much money from the Health sector? There are liars, dam liars, and then there are number and bean crunchers!
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cmoehle
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Chris - San Antonio TX
Fine, Tery, feelings are respectable, though not convincing.

Sylvia, what I see there is lawyers blurred with lobbyists, and in terms of amounts equal to special interests, such as Christian Right groups, and overall big contributors but not the biggest.
Politics is the art of achieving the maximum amount of freedom for individuals that is consistent with the maintenance of social order.
--Barry Goldwater
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sylley2000
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Sylvia, Grand Bend ON
How 'bout misc business? What would be in that? It's more than 36 million dollars for the RNC compared to just less than 16 million for the DNC. The total amounts for each of the candidates is staggering--256 million compared to 115 million! That's close to 1/2 billion dollars for two people to be elected.

Sylvia
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jackd
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What happens when you mix millions of $$$ in political contributions, 10,000 lawyers, a bunch of politicians, lobby groups, thousand of journalists, religious fundamentalists, Iraq, Vietnam, an elephant and a turkey?

A real mess.

JackD
Walk in front of me, you lead me,
Walk behind me, I lead you
Walk beside me, you are a friend.
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teryt
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Sylvia, the numbers in your post are by aggregate sector, correct?

You realize that this is different than looking at individual industries, right?

Do you see in that same website, but broken down further, that lawyers top the giving to the DNC? Do you find where the RNC get's about half what the DNC gets from lawyers?
My Boast is Christ :pray:
Soon to have MBA (I'll perhaps be smart then)
Recovering Perfectionist
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sylley2000
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Sylvia, Grand Bend ON
Terry,

What I see will be different from what you see. My point was you can do many things with numbers.

Why do you suppose you might interpret the data differently? Wow, could it be that individuals look at numbers with a jaundiced eye? Numbers cease to be meaningful when 'causal' relationships are attached to them.

For instance, why do you suppose the RNC gets more than 1/2 as much as the DNC from the Health sector? In the end, they are just numbers which are easily twisted to support whatever opinion is put forward as an hypothesis. The best guard against that is to view numbers as interesting. The scientific method breaks down when they are used for political purposes. Empirical analysis of numbers is best left to ethical scientists with carefully controlled studies that start with a null hypothesis and include double blinds before any causal relationship can be established.

Sylvia

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cmoehle
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Chris - San Antonio TX
Stats hint at what might be.
Politics is the art of achieving the maximum amount of freedom for individuals that is consistent with the maintenance of social order.
--Barry Goldwater
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teryt
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OK granted. In another life I might like to be one of those political scientists, as this stuff is quite facinating.

From a casual stance, however, it would certainly seem that trail lawyers would be very leary of Bush, since he's always jangling the tort reform chains. And therefore more likely to support democrats.

It is interesting that on this ticket we have two big biz candidates vs. two lawyers, and from a casual observation, it might appear that things are biased in those directions.
My Boast is Christ :pray:
Soon to have MBA (I'll perhaps be smart then)
Recovering Perfectionist
Christian Hedonist

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cmoehle
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Chris - San Antonio TX
Tery, not being nitpicky, but the key concept is causal not casual. :)

Kerry, a lawyer? Didn't know. Bush a big businessman, say, what!? Surely you jest.
Politics is the art of achieving the maximum amount of freedom for individuals that is consistent with the maintenance of social order.
--Barry Goldwater
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brewster
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Yup, Chris, that's what their bios say they are, or were. In both cases, it was a long time ago, and they probably never were for very long.
Posted Image My Favourite Campsite
Bow Valley Provincial Park, Kananaskis Country, Alberta
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sylley2000
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Sylvia, Grand Bend ON
Chris,

Pundits prefer to be casual about cause. There's a lot of mischief out there in the big city! :floorrollin: If at all possible they use casual cause to cause people to vote in a preferred way-- their way!

Sylvia
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cmoehle
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Chris - San Antonio TX
Hmmm. I dismissed Kerry so long ago I guess there's much I don't know about him.

Question, casual one, where do lawyers make their big bucks? Big business?
Politics is the art of achieving the maximum amount of freedom for individuals that is consistent with the maintenance of social order.
--Barry Goldwater
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teryt
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cmoehle
Oct 23 2004, 07:38 PM
Tery, not being nitpicky, but the key concept is causal not casual. :)

Kerry, a lawyer? Didn't know. Bush a big businessman, say, what!? Surely you jest.

That's Shirley to you, and I meant "casual." :poke:
My Boast is Christ :pray:
Soon to have MBA (I'll perhaps be smart then)
Recovering Perfectionist
Christian Hedonist

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