cmoehle

Feb 20 2006, 04:28 PM

I don't know why it is that I continue to be surprised by someone who thinks they know what I think

Lon Frank

Feb 20 2006, 07:41 PM

Man, how I wish I could answer the questions you raise. I live only a few miles from the Gulf, on property which floods about twice yearly. Hurricane Rita missed us by less than 50 miles, and I only got about 50 grand in damage. Another hurricane season like last year, and I'll have to make life changing decisions. I have a vested interest in finding answers.

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My prediction of the melting of the arctic ice cap is grandstanding on my part.

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Global Warming as a Political Issue (1980s)   
By 1980, many climate scientists thought it likely that harmful global warming was on the way, but Federal budgets for their research were not rising. In 1981, Ronald Reagan took the presidency with an administration that openly scorned their concerns. He brought with him a backlash that had been building against the environmental movement. Many conservatives denied nearly every environmental worry, global warming included. They lumped all such concerns together as the rants of business-hating liberals, a Trojan Horse for government regulation. The National Climate Program Office found itself serving, as an observer put it, as "an outpost in enemy territory."(56) The new administration laid plans to cut funding for CO2 studies in particular, deeming such research unnecessary. Everything connected with the subject became politically sensitive. Thus when NASA scientist James Hansen published a study showing that the world had been getting warmer, and the New York Times made it a front-page story, the DOE reneged on funding they had promised Hansen. He had to lay off five people from his institute.(57) Such cutbacks were not enough for the DOE program's enemies. "The question of concern," one staff scientist remarked, "will be whether we have jobs rather than how we spend money."(58)   

A total gutting of greenhouse effect research was narrowly averted when scientists rallied behind Representative Albert Gore, Jr. As a student at Harvard a quarter-century back, Gore had been impressed by lectures Revelle gave there. Revelle had displayed Keeling's curve of relentlessly rising CO2. "We were looking at only eight years of information," Gore recalled, "but if this trend continued, human civilization would be forcing a profound and disruptive change in the global climate." It came as a shock to him, exploding his childhood assumption that "the Earth is so vast and nature so powerful that nothing we do can have any major or lasting effect on the normal functioning of its natural systems."(59) Over the years Gore had kept abreast of the technical issues as they developed, and he shared the concern about global warming as it grew among scientists. No doubt he also saw a political opening. As a champion of environmental issues he could display leadership in one of the few areas where the Reagan administration's policies disturbed a large majority of voters.   
Gore joined a few other Congressmen to embarrass the administration with hearings on the proposed cuts. The hearings won a smattering of attention in the press, including an editorial in the Washington Post saying that global warming had moved outside the "sandals and granola crowd" to mainstream science. The hearings themselves counted less than the echo in the press. As an aide close to the process put it, "the popular media is the most potent way of convincing a member of Congress that he should pay attention to scientific issues." Politicians did not read scientific journals, nor much care what they said. Rather, they relied on the press as the "prime detector of the public's fears."(60) Sporadic press attention to greenhouse warming through the rest of the year embarrassed the administration enough to avert the worst of the threatened budget cuts.   

The small band of climate scientists who were not only alarmed about global warming, but determined to do something about it, worked harder than ever to attract attention, even at risk of sounding alarmist. They had some success at getting stories into newspapers and magazines. The politicians who supported them were still more oriented toward getting press coverage. For example, for a 1984 hearing Gore called in Carl Sagan, a respectable atmospheric scientist but far more famous as an astronomy popularizer. Sagan would attract television cameras to the hearings better than the specialists who devoted all their time to research. 

The biggest concern of Sagan and some other atmospheric scientists pointed in another direction. In 1983, they announced calculations that a nuclear war could bring on a "nuclear winter," a profound cooling that might last for years. While this warning had little connection with the greenhouse effect, it did thrust forward the troublesome idea that human technology could bring on a climate disaster. The "nuclear winter" discussion grew into a harsh political controversy, for it was a deliberate attack on the Reagan administration's refusal to reduce the nation's nuclear arsenal. This reinforced the tendency for debate about possible climate changes to polarize along traditional political lines. 

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Here are gathered in chronological sequence the most important events in the history of climate change science. (For a narrative see the Introduction: summary history.) This list of milestones includes major influences external to the science itself. Following it is a list of other external influences.


1800-1870
Level of carbon dioxide gas (CO2) in the atmosphere, as later measured in ancient ice, is about 290 ppm (parts per million).

First Industrial Revolution. Coal, railroads, and land clearing speed up greenhouse gas emission, while better agriculture and sanitation speed up population growth.

1896
Arrhenius publishes first calculation of global warming from human emissions of CO2.=>Simple models

1897
Chamberlin produces a model for global carbon exchange including feedbacks.=>Simple models

1870-1910
Second Industrial Revolution. Fertilizers and other chemicals, electricity, and public health further accelerate growth.

1914-1918
World War I; governments learn to mobilize and control industrial societies.

1920-1925
Opening of Texas and Persian Gulf oil fields inaugurates era of cheap energy.

1930s
Global warming trend since late 19th century reported.=>Modern temp's

Milankovitch proposes orbital changes as the cause of ice ages.=>Climate cycles

1938
Callendar argues that CO2 greenhouse global warming is underway, reviving interest in the question.=>CO2 greenhouse

1939-1945
World War II. Grand strategy is largely driven by a struggle to control oil fields.

1945
U.S. Office of Naval Research begins generous funding of many fields of science, some of which happen to be useful for understanding climate change.=>Government

1956
Ewing and Donn offer a feedback model for quick ice age onset.=>Simple models

Phillips produces a somewhat realistic computer model of the global atmosphere.=>Models (GCMs)

Plass calculates that adding CO2 to the atmosphere will have a significant effect on the radiation balance.=>Radiation math

1957
Launch of Soviet Sputnik satellite. Cold War concerns support 1957-58 International Geophysical Year, bringing new funding and coordination to climate studies.=>International

Revelle finds that CO2 produced by humans will not be readily absorbed by the oceans.=>CO2 greenhouse

1958
Telescope studies show a greenhouse effect raises temperature of the atmosphere of Venus far above the boiling point of water.=>Venus & Mars

1960
Downturn of global temperatures since the early 1940s is reported. =>Modern temp's

Keeling accurately measures CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere and detects an annual rise.=>CO2 greenhouse The level is 315 ppm.

1962
Cuban Missile Crisis, peak of the Cold War.

1963
Calculations suggest that feedback with water vapor could make the climate acutely sensitive to changes in CO2 level.=>Radiation math

1965
Boulder meeting on causes of climate change, in which Lorenz and others point out the chaotic nature of climate system and the possibility of sudden shifts.=>Chaos theory

1966
Emiliani's analysis of deep-sea cores shows the timing of ice ages was set by small orbital shifts, suggesting that the climate system is sensitive to small changes.=>Climate cycles

1967
International Global Atmospheric Research Program established, mainly to gather data for better short-range weather prediction, but including climate.=>International

Manabe and Wetherald make a convincing calculation that doubling CO2 would raise world temperatures a couple of degrees.=>Radiation math

1968
Studies suggest a possibility of collapse of Antarctic ice sheets, which would raise sea levels catastrophically.=>Sea rise & ice

1969
Astronauts walk on the Moon, and people perceive the Earth as a fragile whole.=>Public opinion

Budyko and Sellers present models of catastrophic ice-albedo feedbacks.=>Simple models

Nimbus III satellite begins to provide comprehensive global atmospheric temperature measurements.=>Government

1970
First Earth Day. Environmental movement attains strong influence, spreads concern about global degradation. =>Public opinion

Creation of U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the world's leading funder of climate research.=>Government

Aerosols from human activity are shown to be increasing swiftly. Bryson claims they counteract global warming and may bring serious cooling.=>Aerosols

1971
SMIC conference of leading scientists reports a danger of rapid and serious global change caused by humans, calls for an organized research effort.=>International

Mariner 9 spacecraft finds a great dust storm warming the atmosphere of Mars, plus indications of a radically different climate in the past.=>Venus & Mars

1972
Ice cores and other evidence show big climate shifts in the past between relatively stable modes in the space of a thousand years or so, especially around 11,000 years ago.=>Rapid change

1973
Oil embargo and price rise bring first "energy crisis".=>Government

1974
Serious droughts and other unusual weather since 1972 increase scientific and public concern about climate change, with cooling from aerosols suspected to be as likely as warming; journalists talk of ice age.=>Public opinion

1975
Concern about environmental effects of airplanes leads to investigations of trace gases in the stratosphere and discovery of danger to ozone layer.=>Other gases

Manabe and collaborators produce complex but plausible computer models which show a temperature rise of several degrees for doubled CO2=>Models (GCMs)

1976
Studies show that CFCs (1975)and methane and ozone (1976) can make a serious contribution to the greenhouse effect.=>Other gases

Deep-sea cores show a dominating influence from 100,000-year Milankovitch orbital changes, emphasizing the role of feedbacks.=>Climate cycles

Deforestation and other ecosystem changes are recognized as major factors in the future of the climate.=>Biosphere
Eddy shows that there were prolonged periods without sunspots in past centuries, corresponding to cold periods.=>Solar variation

1977
Scientific opinion tends to converge on global warming, not cooling, as the chief climate risk in next century.=>Public opinion

1978
Attempts to coordinate climate research in U.S. end with an inadequate National Climate Program Act, accompanied by rapid but temporary growth in funding.=>Government

1979
Second oil "energy crisis." Strengthened environmental movement encourages renewable energy sources, inhibits nuclear energy growth.=>Public opinion

U.S. National Academy of Sciences report finds it highly credible that doubling CO2 will bring 1.5-4.5°C global warming.=>Models (GCMs)

World Climate Research Programme launched to coordinate international research.=>International

Election of Reagan brings backlash against environmental movement. Political conservatism is linked to skepticism about global warming.=>Government

1981
IBM Personal Computer introduced. Advanced economies are increasingly delinked from energy.

Hansen and others show that sulfate aerosols can significantly cool the climate, raising confidence in models showing future greenhouse warming. =>Aerosols

Some scientists predict greenhouse warming “signal” should be visible by about the year 2000. =>Modern temp's

1982
Greenland ice cores reveal drastic temperature oscillations in the space of a century in the distant past.=>Rapid change

Strong global warming since mid-1970s is reported, with 1981 the warmest year on record.=>Modern temp's

1983
Reports from U.S. National Academy of Sciences and Environmental Protection Agency spark conflict, as greenhouse warming becomes prominent in mainstream politics.=>Government

1985
Villach conference declares consensus among experts that some global warming seems inevitable, calls on governments to consider international agreements to restrict emissions. =>International

Antarctic ice cores show that CO2 and temperature went up and down together through past ice ages. =>CO2

Broecker speculates that a reorganization of North Atlantic Ocean circulation can bring swift and radical climate change.=>The oceans

1987
Montreal Protocol of the Vienna Convention imposes international restrictions on emission of ozone-destroying gases.=>International

1988
News media coverage of global warming leaps upward following record heat and droughts plus testimony by Hansen.=>Public opinion

Toronto conference calls for strict, specific limits on greenhouse gas emissions.=>International

Ice-core and biology studies confirm living ecosystems make climate feedback by way of methane, which could accelerate global warming.=>Other gases

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is established.=>International

Level of CO2 in the atmosphere reaches 350 ppm

After 1988 it is difficult to identify historical milestones. Not only do we lack perspective (as discussed in a separate note), but the effort was so large that progress on a given topic, even more than before, came through a variety of results spread over several groups and several years. A TENTATIVE LIST:

1989
Fossil-fuel and other industries form Global Climate Coalition in US to lobby politicians and convince the media and public that climate science is too uncertain to justify action. =>Public opinion

1990
First IPCC report says world has been warming and future warming seems likely. Industry lobbyists and some scientists dispute the tentative conclusions. =>International

1991
Mt. Pinatubo explodes; Hansen predicts cooling pattern, verifying (by 1995) computer models of aerosol effects. =>Aerosols

Global warming skeptics emphasize studies indicating that a significant part of 20th-century temperature changes were due to solar influences. (The correlation would fail in the following decade.) =>Solar variation

Studies from 55 million years ago show possibility of eruption of methane from the seabed with enormous self-sustained warming. =>Rapid change

1992
Conference in Rio de Janeiro produces UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, but US blocks calls for serious action. =>International

Study of ancient climates reveals climate sensitivity in same range as predicted independently by computer models. =>Models (GCMs)

1993
Greenland ice cores suggest that great climate changes (at least on a regional scale) can occur in the space of a single decade. =>Rapid change

1995
Second IPCC report detects "signature" of human-caused greenhouse effect warming, declares that serious warming is likely in the coming century. =>International

Reports of the breaking up of Antarctic ice sheets and other signs of actual current warming in polar regions begin affecting public opinion.=>Public opinion

1997
Toyota introduces Prius in Japan, first mass-market electric hybrid car; swift progress in large wind turbines and other energy alternatives.

International conference produces Kyoto Protocol, setting targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions if enough nations sign onto a treaty. =>International

1998
The warmest year on record, globally averaged (1995, 1997, 2001-2004 neared the same level). Borehole data confirm extraordinary modern warming trend. =>Modern temp's

Qualms about arbitrariness in computer models diminish as teams model ice-age climate and dispense with special adjustments to reproduce current climate. =>Models (GCMs)

1999
Criticism that satellite measurements show no warming are dismissed by National Academy Panel. =>Modern temp's

Ramanathan detects massive "brown cloud" of aerosols from South Asia. =>Aerosols

2000
Global Climate Coalition dissolves as many corporations grapple with threat of warming, but oil lobby convinces US administration to deny problem. =>Government

Variety of studies emphasize variability and importance of biological feedbacks in carbon cycle, liable to accelerate warming.=>Biosphere

2001
Third IPCC report states baldly that global warming, unprecedented since end of last ice age, is "very likely," with possible severe surprises. Effective end of debate among all but a few scientists.=>International

Bonn meeting, with participation of most countries but not US, develops mechanisms for working towards Kyoto targets.=>International

National Academy panel sees a "paradigm shift" in scientific recognition of the risk of abrupt climate change (decade-scale). =>Rapid change

Warming observed in ocean basins; match with computer models gives a clear signature of greenhouse effect warming. =>Models (GCMs)

2002
Studies find surprisingly strong "global dimming," due to pollution, has retarded arrival of greenhouse warming, but dimming is now decreasing. =>Aerosols

2003
Variety of studies increase concern that collapse of ice sheets (West Antarctica, perhaps Greenland) can raise sea levels faster than most had believed. =>Sea rise & ice

Deadly summer heat wave in Europe accelerates divergence between European and US public opinion. =>Public opinion

2004
In controversy over temperature data covering past millenium, most conclude climate was variable (perhaps because of changes in the Sun) but not comparable to post-1980 warming. =>Modern temp's ; =>Solar variation

First major book, movie and art work featuring global warming appear. =>Public opinion

2005
Kyoto treaty goes into effect, signed by major industrial nations except US. Japan, Western Europe, regional US entities accelerate work to retard emissions.=>International

Level of CO2 in the atmosphere reaches 380 ppm.

This is a reference list of miscellaneous significant developments that don't fit into any of the other essays: scientific-technical matters that arose altogether independently of the scientific fields covered, and are not included above in the list of major "milestones," but that did have a significant influence on climate change studies.

Before the 1950s there were practically no global warming studies as such, and all the important discoveries (the ice ages, the infrared absorption of carbon dioxide, etc.) were effectively "external."

1950s:
Research on military applications of radar and infrared radiation promotes advances in radiative transfer theory and measurements =>Radiation math — Studies conducted largely for military applications give accurate values of infrared absorption by gases =>CO2 greenhouse — Nuclear physicists and chemists develop Carbon-14 analysis, useful for dating ancient climate changes =>Carbon dates, for detecting carbon from fossil fuels in the atmosphere, and for measuring the rate of ocean turnover =>CO2 greenhouse — Development of digital computers affects many fields including the calculation of radiation transfer in the atmosphere =>Radiation math, and makes it possible to model weather processes =>Models (GCMs) — Geological studies of polar wandering help provoke Ewing-Donn model of ice ages =>Simple models — Improvements in infrared instrumentation (mainly for industrial processes) allow very precise measurements of atmospheric CO2 =>CO2 greenhouse.


1960s:
Analysis of automobile and airplane exhaust pollution brings recognition of complex chemical and light interactions in the atmosphere, especially involving ozone =>Other gases — Research on urban air pollution, and related industrial and military applications,improves knowledge of aerosols and atmospheric turbidity =>Aerosols — Studies of fallout from nuclear weapons tests give improved picture of circulation of aerosols in the stratosphere =>Aerosols— Studies of fallout and pesticides foster worries that human technology can bring world-wide disaster =>Public opinion — Research on small-scale phenomena in various fields of geophysics (cloud formation, soil moisture, etc.) provides information useful for setting crucial parameters in global computer models  — Studies of rice paddies and other biological and agricultural entities show emission of large quantities of methane =>Other gases.


1970s:
Neutrino experiments and new astrophysical theories suggest that the Sun could be a variable star =>Solar variation — Models of glacier flow, developed by generations of glaciologists, reveal a possibly catastrophic instability in the Antarctic ice sheet =>Sea rise & ice — Fallout from nuclear weapons tests, slowly penetrating the oceans, reveals deep circulation patterns =>The oceans — Studies of ancient reversals of the Earth's magnetic field, measured in continental rocks and the ocean floor, provide a time-marker for climate changes =>Climate cycles — Ocean geologists find huge deposits of methane-bearing ices in the world’s seabeds =>Other gases — Continued rapid improvement of digital computers and software makes possible fairly realistic models of complex systems like climate =>Models (GCMs) — Nimbus-III and other satellites, designed chiefly for weather prediction, provide global data essential for climate modelling =>Models (GCMs).

After about 1980, efforts that would be relevent to global warming were generally undertaken with an awareness of potential connections.