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Presidential Errors
Topic Started: Feb 19 2006, 07:48 PM (849 Views)
cmoehle
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Chris - San Antonio TX
Lon "Again, the complexity of global warming is the problem. Some people say we have questions about it, so it must not exist. We have questions about it because it DOES exist, and there are no concerted efforts to study it."

I don't think anyone--except, just now, Cal, who seems to think all science a religion, religion a science--is saying global warming does not exist. The questions I see are twofold: one, in relation to other causes, how much is man contributing, and two, what exactly can be done without biting the hand that would feed it, business.
Politics is the art of achieving the maximum amount of freedom for individuals that is consistent with the maintenance of social order.
--Barry Goldwater
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cmoehle
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Chris - San Antonio TX
Photobitstream
Feb 20 2006, 05:04 PM
cmoehle
Feb 20 2006, 11:42 AM
All the reasons, including those justifying invasion, were given. Granted, the focus shifted over time, the White House's and ours as the grave threat faded. But all the reasons were given from the start.

Now you're practicing revisionist history. The focus shift over time because the reasons stated before the invasion turned out to be bogus.

Remember the yellow cake document? You know, the forged one which the CIA and Italian analysts warned the bush administration was unreliable?

How about Colin Powell going before the United Nations and stating we knew Iraq had WMDs and we knew where they were?

Or George's infamous 16 words in the 2003 SOTU?

You've obviously forgotten Dick Cheney's assertions that Saddam had close ties with Al Queda.

Do you remember Donald Rumsfeld testifying before Congress that the war would last no more than six months, cost no more than $1.9 billion, and the Iraqi people would greet us with flowers in the streets?

George W Bush stated repeatedly, before the invasion, that the War in Iraq was not about regime change, but about removing an imminent threat to the United States and the region. Now he's stating repeatedly that the invasion was all about toppling a tyrant and installing Democracy.

Do you see the lie?

I don't know why it is that I continue to be surprised by someone who thinks they know what I think, and goes on and on building it up to tear it down, but hasn't in the least hit the broadside of the barn of what I think.

Just because the nexus of active WMD programs and operative terrorist ties played big on the press and people's fears does not mean that if you read more than 16 words you won't find in all the speeches the other justifications. The notions of spreading liberal democracy and stabilizing an oil-based economy were present prior to the grave threat.
Politics is the art of achieving the maximum amount of freedom for individuals that is consistent with the maintenance of social order.
--Barry Goldwater
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Stoney
Huntsville, AL
Quote:
 
Do you see the lie?


What I see are miscalculations and maybe exaggeration. Pretty common fare in politics.

If the world thought Iraq had WMDs, and the world did, maybe even Saddam did, it was reasonable for W to think they did.
The character inherent in the American people has done all that has been accomplished; and it would have done somewhat more, if the government had not sometimes got in its way.

Henry David Thoreau
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cmoehle
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Chris - San Antonio TX
So much for "the lie". See my post here and then Cal's subsequent post.
Politics is the art of achieving the maximum amount of freedom for individuals that is consistent with the maintenance of social order.
--Barry Goldwater
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justme
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Lon Frank
Feb 20 2006, 04:31 PM

Justme, I admire you for using the alternate energy sources!  I think sometimes that I will move to another area and employ a lifestyle of much less impact.  But I'm old now, or so my doctors tell me.  Perhaps the pessimism of age shows through in what I say or write sometimes.  I regret that.  I regret that I cannot be more in this worldwide debate.


Lon-- Thanks for the patronizing comment, but you failed to address my post with any substance. If you are the expert you claim to be-- I think it would be easy for you to do so--- so far you have not posted anything that one can't find on any of the blogs sponsored by the environmentalist groups that hate Bush.

So let me ask the questions--- how much is man contributing to global warming and how much can man resolve the problem. What would the costs be in doing so. Also can you quantitize the effects between normal terrestrial and non-terrestrial processes.
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CalRed
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Chris

My post on global warming was a scientific piece.
Something instead of Nothing?

"I find it quite improbable that such order came out of chaos. There has to be some organizing principle.
God to me is a mystery but is the explanation for the miracle of existence, why there is something instead of nothing."
Alan Sandage

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cmoehle
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Chris - San Antonio TX
"A theory or hypothesis that has not and will not be proven."

The article you posted, Cal, has little to do with that sort of unscientific statement.
Politics is the art of achieving the maximum amount of freedom for individuals that is consistent with the maintenance of social order.
--Barry Goldwater
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Lon Frank
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Chris, I had meant to butt out, but since you asked me about this, I'll respond again. I agree, the two questions are - what is mankind doing to cause this, and what can we do to reverse/prevent it. However, and this is a big one, I don't really think the first question is all that important. Everyone gets lost in the finger pointing game in this debate. Whether Mobil/Exxon is to blame, or Weyerhauser, or GE, or General Motors, or some poverty stricken farmer in the Amazon, clearing and burning the rainforest, it simply doesn't matter in itself. We know that the activities of man, and the increasing industrialization seems to coincide with global warming, and that should give us all motivation.

Likewise, what we can do about it is almost a mute point. Global warming and the activities which apparently contribute to it are, well, global, perhaps stellar. A town in California can mandate that the streetlights be replaced with energy efficient LED bulbs, but still we lose the battle of the Amazon rainforest.

Another poster wrote me a very nice PM, stating that he could see that I was a 'believer' in global warming, but he was unconvinced. Fair enough. I, too, am unconvinced. However, unlike the 'study' referenced by Calred, which is obviously biased*, I am a believer in the value of study. My whole point with global warming is not that it WILL be catastropic, but rather that it MIGHT be, and we are still arguing over the relative impact of lightbulbs. I want to know what is happening. I want to know how it probably will progress. I want to know the best and worst scenarios. Not too much to ask, huh?

------------------

*To save you from jumping me over Calred's statements, let me make a few observations. While I disagree with Cal and the report he quotes, he may be serious in his preconceived assessment of global warming, and is entitled to it. However, 'scientific' and published BS such as the report is a poor nail to hang your hat on. First, it seems to want to establish that we have just lots and lots of trees, and the best thing for us all is to cut them down immediately. It was written by two (related?) chemists from an institute in Oregon, and evidently funded by Dow Jones, Inc. Any red flags there?

Worse, it makes all too many unscientific statements, especially based on a couple of graphs and a couple hundred words. It uses too many terms such as 'reasonable data', 'major change', or 'reliable estimates'. I'm not interested in what they think; I'm interested in what they can prove or show a tendency towards. This reads like a high school report on 'Why I don't like global warming'.

Some great 'scientific' quotes from the report:

"Long-term global predictions are beyond current capabilities...
So we needn't worry about human use of hydrocarbons warming the Earth. We also needn't worry about environmental calamities, even if the current, natural warming trend continues:" - Tell that to the next Katrina victim you meet.

"Our children will enjoy an Earth with twice as much plant and animal life as that with which we now are blessed." - Try this one on the next wildlife biologist you stand in line with at the pac 'n sac.

"No other single technological factor is more important to the increase in the quality, length and quantity of human life than the continued, expanded and unrationed use of the Earth's hydrocarbons" - I can't even make a joke about this line.

In short, there are scientific studies and there are scientific studies. Like a lot of 'knowledge', they can be found to support just about anything you want. Oh, and this was written in 1997. Maybe we haven't learned anything since 1997, but then, we're back to my original point - the need for leadership in research of global warming.

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cmoehle
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Chris - San Antonio TX
Lon, of the two topics here in this thread, this interests me the more. So carry on.

Actually, my question was how much does man contribute. We know there are other factors, justme gives a good accounting. Global warming is a natural occurance, imo, because of those factors. Is man's contribution as significant as those who focus solely on man seem to think?

What we can do is limited by funding. Tie the hands of the corporations and businesses who provide the wealth to fund it, and there won't be any. I think that's the stance the Bush Administration takes.
Politics is the art of achieving the maximum amount of freedom for individuals that is consistent with the maintenance of social order.
--Barry Goldwater
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Lon Frank
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Chris, in deference to Justme, I am NOT an expert on global warming. I am an environmentalist, and my being so perhaps gives me more questions rather than more answers. I wish I could tell you how we can solve this problem, indeed, just what the problem consists of, and how much it will cost. I can't. Right now, no one can. Of course, as Justme points out, there are actually lots and lots of 'answers'. Every environmental organization has some; every political pundit has some, every auto worker, every timber company, every fisherman has some. Global warming at this time may be the proverbial elephant among blind men. We can't even identify it with any certainty, much less stop it. But, it still may end up stepping on some of us.

My point is that there is too much evidence which is irrefutable today to continue to ignore global warming and the climatic changes it may occur. Is Justme and his solar panels a good idea? Sure. Will they make a difference in the long run? I like to believe so, but the elephant is just too big and too unknown in it's power. To complete my retreat to Devils Advocate, - will study at this time tell us anything? Who will pay for the study? Who will coordinate it, digest the data, reach conclusions? Who will be responsible?

Well, as to the responsibility issue, I'm responsible. I knew better, yet didn't do better. I made money and bought cars. I used styrofoam, burned limbs, poisoned ants. I did all the things that someone, somewhere, would find environmentally repulsive. I wish I had the answers; some answers, even some knowlegable questions. I wish I were an expert, but I'm just a poster here, and just foolish enough to mouth off occasionally.

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silverfox
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Lon Frank
Feb 20 2006, 11:07 AM
Those who know a little about me, know that I've been a professional environmentalist all my adult life. My resume is rather heavy, with some very serious players. In the early 1990's I started preaching that mankind, and the U.S. in particular, must begin to evolve beyond our dependence on fossil fuels. In the late 90's, I started telling people that global warming was indeed a reality (regardless of the then current 'science' countering it, produced by oil compaies).


I have been watching this environment debate with interest. I agree that we are in a global warming cycle, but you have not shed much light on the causes that I can understand. The global warming scenario has been pointed out since the 80's by the many in NOAA and it is not surprise. However the causes seem to be less than scientific and more political--- at least to me.
Is El Nino a function of global warming and what will it be like in this century with global warming increasing? Also if you would address Cmoehle's and others questions I would appreciated it. Keep it simple for us layman please.
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Lon Frank
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Oh geeze, silverfox, I evidently put my foot in it this time. I posted what I did about my background simply to give some credence to my belief that (1) global warming is occuring, and (2) the Bush Administration is not doing enough to study it.

In the 80's when some folks were getting concerned, I was not even in the ballgame. My company, GEOS, Inc., speciallized in subsurface rememdiation of fugitive petroleum products within the vados zone of soil. If you want to talk about contaminant migration within soil lenses, the use of soil vapors to quantify and qualify a site, the impact of proper/improper monitoring wells and emissions upon groundwater, well, I'm your man. But my knowledge of global warming, or lack thereof, comes entirely from being on the fringe of a scientific debate. I can only relate what I personally have heard or read, and how it held up to my personal observation.

Man, how I wish I could answer the questions you raise. I live only a few miles from the Gulf, on property which floods about twice yearly. Hurricane Rita missed us by less than 50 miles, and I only got about 50 grand in damage. Another hurricane season like last year, and I'll have to make life changing decisions. I have a vested interest in finding answers.

I also wish I could say with some authority that industrial CO2 is THE cause of global warming. But I can't. It seems to be A cause, as does the burning of tropical rainforest or even increased natural offgassing of the ocean floor. I simply don't know what wildcard El Nino may play in the instability of climate. I do know that in spite of scientific knowledge we had our first 'impossible' hurricane in the southern hemisphere last year.

There are just so many questions, that I hardly listen to the obvious one anymore - 'who or what causes it?'. In reality, I only hope for some leadership when the insurance companies get a wake up call from mother nature. When they realize that climatic anomilies, occuring with less than random patterns, can and will cost them money, then they will get something done. The insurance industry and the money it represents has been behind several of the most concise data gathering efforts in history. When they stop insuring houses on the coast, it may be time to wake up.

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Stoney
Huntsville, AL
Here's what confuses me.

Quote:
 
"Antarctica is a tricky region and is more likely to do its own thing as the rest of the planet warms," he added. One reason for this, Walsh explained, is that compared with the Arctic, Antarctica is more susceptible to heat loss and gain from the ocean.

Walsh and his colleagues reported last week, also in Science, that contrary to previous reports, Antarctica is cooling.

If the whole of Antarctica were divided into a grid, said Walsh, about 60 to 70 percent of the squares would reveal a cooling trend, while warming would be seen in the other 30 to 40 percent of the overall area. "So there's a slight net cooling for the entire continent," Walsh said.

Inconsistent Reports

The total surface area of Antarctica is 5.1 million square miles (13.2 million square kilometers), but the area doubles in winter with the addition of sea ice, said Lloyd Peck, of the Natural Environment Research Council in Cambridge, United Kingdom.

"You can't expect an area three times the size of Australia to behave the same way throughout," said Peck, a co-author of the new study on the Signey Island lakes.

Walsh and his colleague Peter Doran, who collaborated on the recent study that concluded Antarctica is cooling, say past reports of global warming in the region were skewed by the nature of the measurements.


National Geographic

This from what I would call a reliable source. There is evidence of both warming and cooling.

My conclusion. Nobody knows. We talk about 20 year trends but much of what I've read suggests that trends or cycles are more apt to cover much more than 20 years.

But as I've said before, I'm willing to accept that caution is necessary. But I can find no one who can offer reasonable solutions beyond what we are doing.

As one article put it (I'm paraphrasing something that I read some time ago), we can't even predict the weather for next week with any degree of accuracy. How could we predict Global Warming?
The character inherent in the American people has done all that has been accomplished; and it would have done somewhat more, if the government had not sometimes got in its way.

Henry David Thoreau
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DocInBird
Member
It has yet to be proven what portion of global warming is caused by man. It is easy to prove that a significant problem exists and is worsening, but we just don't have the tools or models to determine the role of greenhouse gasses, other industrial pollution, vehicle emissions, etc. play in the scenario. This does not bother me.

Asma and other breathing problems in children are growing at an alarming rate. While the number of people in the US who smoke cigarettes has declined significantly, the incidence of lung cancer and emphysema has not not. My point is there are other reasons beside global warming to begin cleaning up the pollution from heavy industry.

Before corporations were declared to be "people", and were local in scope, companies recognized that they had to be good neighbors. When the butcher's children went to school and/or church with the children of his customers, shoddy practices that allowed E-coli bacterial infestation of meat was rare, for example. Unfortunately those days are gone.

Witness the spate of recent lobbying activity over the proposed fuel mileage standards proposed for the US. Having done contracts for the automotive industry, I can tell you that increasing fuel mileage by 2 mpg over several years would be no hardship. Toyota managed this in a year just by reformulating their engine oil. But to hear the cries from the industry and their lobbyists, one would think that it would bankrupt them.

Bush has not helped. By relaxing the pollution standards for electrical power plants, at the behest of the coal industry lobbyists, we are spewing more pollutants into the air. I have forgotten. Was this the "Clean Air Act"? or was that a different pollution causing policy?

How many countries in the world agree that we need to address the man made causes of global warming (the only ones we can change) and how many refuse? So the scientists in all those other countries are simply incorrect? How about the scientists in the US who say the same thing and complain that they are getting political pressure from the White House to keep quiet?

As I see it, this is a complex problem. It will be years before we fully understand it, but we already know ways that we can begin to reduce pollution and increase the quality of life for the citizens. It would be a step in the right direction.

--doc
Just Doc and Orson (German Shepherd) wandering around North America.
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puli-one
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Siverfox: The major fishing companies here on the West Coast put a lot of effort into tracking El Nino and it's patterns and have done so for years. They have it down to a science where they can predict with good results when they will occur and what the water temperature patterns are going to be.
The variance in water temperatures effects the routes the fish will take, they will of course seek cooler waters on their migration routes. This determines where the companies will send their various fleets.
As they predict El Nino with fairly accurate results, I would have to say that it is not dependant on global warming, once the peak year has been reached, water temperatures drop back to a norm then start their assent all over again. There are severe years and the not severe years that the fisherman call El Nina, it appears to be a regular cycle.
I have been privy to many of their planning discussions, but never have I ever been told the exact cause of a El Nino, it is a interesting subject.
Don & Donna
Puli Pup - Kelly
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