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AFFL ROUND SEVENTEEN LOCKOUT:
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| 1st rounder for trade | |
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| Topic Started: Aug 26 2014, 08:29 PM (390 Views) | |
| Stife | Aug 29 2014, 05:43 PM Post #21 |
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John Meesen
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Pick 17 this year should be just as fruitful as most years. My assessments on this year's draft are more from an AFFL perspective - the top end is riddled with KPPs which traditionally are worth less on AFFL - no KPP projects as a genuine top tier player, instead second tier - ergo 5-6 of the IRL top 10-12 would normally be prime candidates to slide on AFFL and be worth less than their IRL pick In the late first perhaps there are players projected to go there who aren't as good as normal but they're very likely to 'make it' - which isn't very common in the round. It's really weird. The top 10 is more risk-laden than usual whereas beyond that there's a lot of safe bets. Late picks in this draft are also more likely to hit than normal IMO. Like pick 17 will get a Bampton/Neal-Bullen/Blakely/Gore/De Goey/Duggan/Ellis/KPP Slider. You can't complain about that, those kind of players would be 10-25 every year, and a top 10 KPP at 17 is always handy. |
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| Jarman Magic | Aug 29 2014, 05:46 PM Post #22 |
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Beau Dowler
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I might be interested |
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| Lliam | Aug 29 2014, 06:47 PM Post #23 |
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Matthew Richardson
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I like Darcy Lang. Think he could become quite a good player. He's also got the added benefit of a years development in the AFL system. |
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| Stoney | Aug 29 2014, 06:57 PM Post #24 |
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David Spriggs
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A year in an afl system, what does that actually mean in 'trade value' terms? Like, matt buntine or billie smedts, do they get valued higher because they've both had 3 years in an "afl system"? Or does it only apply to certain players but not others? Or is it just a little bit irrelevant?? Edited by Stoney, Aug 29 2014, 07:06 PM.
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| Lliam | Aug 29 2014, 07:07 PM Post #25 |
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Matthew Richardson
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I'd have thought it was pretty straight forward. It's development in elite facilities with some of the best players around him to help, teach and mentor him. It's twelve months spent adjusting to the rigors and stresses of AFL. To me he's a player who hasn't done anything wrong and has managed to make his debut. I'd take him over an unknown at pick 17. |
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| Stoney | Aug 29 2014, 07:13 PM Post #26 |
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David Spriggs
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I'm asking how relevant it is for blokes like aiden corr who was a first rounder who's tecnically done "nothing wrong" - been in the afl system for 2 years, does that enhance his value from Pick 14, 2012? The reason i ask is because it seems to work against you every which way at the trade table. Scenario 1. If you have a bloke who's done virtually nothing at AFL level, people say he's done nothing, therefore his value has dropped. Scenario 2. If you're trying to trade for a bloke who's done virtually nothing at AFL level, people say he's had a year in the system so he's more valuable now. |
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| Stoney | Aug 29 2014, 07:17 PM Post #27 |
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David Spriggs
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And this is not having a go at you for preferring lang to 17 (I'm on your side, I do too), its more than time in the system enhances his value part. Irrespective of who the player is. |
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| Lliam | Aug 29 2014, 07:19 PM Post #28 |
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Matthew Richardson
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I never liked Corr to start off with, but even then at a young team with spaces available I feel he should have done a lot more - so to me he's not a player who's done nothing wrong. I guess when you're thinking of it and it's use at the trade table it's always going to that way though. The coach who has the player is going to try and spin it in a positive way where as the coach who's trying to trade them in is going to use it in a negative way. |
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| Stife | Aug 29 2014, 07:27 PM Post #29 |
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John Meesen
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I think a lot depends on whether you're a key position player or not. People in general know that KPPs take time and those taken highly in the draft (top 20-25) more often than not make it - far higher success rate than mids IMO but take longer. They're willing to give them a bit of leeway with development time knowing that they're doing what you'd expect. With smalls there's a little more expectation to perform early. Personally if a player performs exactly how I'd have expected them to in their first season I value them a little higher pick-wise as you'd be trading something without exposed performance for a less-risk player who's got a bit of development. I rated Lang mid to late 30s last year. He's done about what I'd have expected this year. If it were a similar crop I'd therefore pay probably late 20s/early 30s for him as opposed to mid-late 30s. I value them a little higher if they break even because quite simply, I think bust potential is more of a value destroyer than elite upside. A player performing as expected in Yr 1 significantly reduces their potential to be a bust as they're on track to be a 'good' player. Someone like Corr (who I too didn't rate at draft time) as a second year KPD I don't expect much out of. He was always a bit of a rake and had a few defensive shortcomings in u18s. Combine that with some bad injuries and I don't think he's tracked behind schedule. It's very, very rare that a KPD is able to impact straight away. 2-3 seasons just on building their bodies and learning the subtle crafts I'd give them before making judgements. Then again I'd rarely take a KPD in an AFFL draft. Take a long time, only a select few become relevant scorers and there's some bust potential too. Lever this year I'll probably take at 6-9 because I think he's a once in a generation player/sc scorer but he's an exception. |
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| Stoney | Aug 29 2014, 07:29 PM Post #30 |
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David Spriggs
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You're a tough critic. 20 y/o, had a shoulder reco mid way through his first yr and has played 14 AFL games. Not sure he's done a heap wrong for someone his age/position. |
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| Lliam | Aug 29 2014, 07:31 PM Post #31 |
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Matthew Richardson
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I haven't followed him closely to the point that I wasn't even aware of the shoulder reconstruction. That probably changes things. |
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| Stife | Aug 29 2014, 07:32 PM Post #32 |
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John Meesen
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Yeah it's reality v expectations for mine. If the bloke in question had low expectations and has performed averagely, he should be worth more than he was on draft day because he was drafted knowing he'd take time. Likewise if a player was drafted expected to provide immediate impact and only is a fringe player he should be worth less. Someone like Bontempelli wasn't expected to do much this year at all. He was a long term project. The fact that he not only performed better than all his peers but we expected him to be worse should absolutely rocket his value as his reality was so far ahead of his expectations. Had he done not much all year his value would have fallen by far less than someone like a Dunstan had he done SFA all year. Ditto someone like Toumpas was expected to be a ready made kind of player and wasn't. After two seasons he's far more maligned than an O'Rourke type despite both doing SFA as O'Rourke was expected to take a little longer. A good example is Kade Kolodjashnij. He's been excellent this year - but I think people kind of expected that. With his role/game he was a good chance to come in and really look nice off half back. Because he's done as expected he's worth a little more but has he tracked *that* far ahead? Despite his season he's hardly worth an elite. Christian Salem wasn't expected to impact immediately but was expected to at least hold his own and he's been a little below that. His reality is lower than his expectations so his value has fallen a bit. I guess that's kinda what I'm trying to say. |
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| Stoney | Aug 29 2014, 07:33 PM Post #33 |
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David Spriggs
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But again, we're getting drawn into the player. Whether we rate Corr or not is irrelevant, it just seems to be a very subjective way to either blow smoke up a players arse, or use it as a stick to beat them with, depending on whether you're pro (or against) the player in question. |
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| Stife | Aug 29 2014, 07:33 PM Post #34 |
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John Meesen
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Yeah, this. If anything I think Corr has tracked a little ahead of where people expected. |
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