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AFFL ROUND SEVENTEEN LOCKOUT:
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| Melbourne & Fitzroy; ### | |
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| Topic Started: Mar 24 2010, 11:23 AM (1,354 Views) | |
| Deledio2Conca | Mar 28 2010, 10:20 PM Post #41 |
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John Meesen
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Goddard was also a Number 1 Draft Choice and was always going to take a lot longer to reach his potential given he came in very light. Birchall on the other hand was a much more "ready made" AFL player and as such got a lot of games early and was able to stand up to the rigours of AFL footy a lot quicker because of it. That's not to say he won't improve, because he will, but IMO he just doesn't have the potential to become an elite 95+ scorer in Supercoach. |
| Weeeeeee areeeee the Navy Blues, we are the olllddddd daaarkkkkk Navy Blues | |
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| Colby | Mar 29 2010, 08:41 AM Post #42 |
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Tom Jonas Appreciation Society
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Stife this would be perfect place for your pot and kettle pic.
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| Stoney | Mar 29 2010, 10:06 AM Post #43 |
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David Spriggs
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@ RLL, I am barely ever right mate, but for the record I'm not attacking anyone's personal opinion, I'm rebuffing silly statements like "he isnt an accumulator" and "will never be elite". All I'm saying is this: if you compare Birchall to any "elite" player categorised as a defender right now, he is just as well placed in terms of age and ability to be as good as any in the mix. (and that's not my opinion, it's an educated assumption based on the numbers he produces now, compared to the numbers Goddard/Hodge produced at the exact same age). FWIW it isnt a matter of Stoney seeing into the future, its a matter of you (or anyone else) taking note of the past. Players who are in their early 20s generally improve significantly into their mid-late 20s.... is anyone going to debate that? No? Why not... because its right. And that's all I've been saying to everyone who suggests that Birchall cant become a top liner. |
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| Deledio2Conca | Mar 29 2010, 10:12 AM Post #44 |
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John Meesen
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Generally they do....because most players don't come in and play well straight away....and the odd one that does often peaks early because they are ready-made....hence the Goddard scenario, he was a player who had all the potential and eventually fulfilled it as a number 1 pick, while Birchall was very much a ready made youngster who come out of the blocks but probably doesn't have the potential to become an elite 95+ scorer. |
| Weeeeeee areeeee the Navy Blues, we are the olllddddd daaarkkkkk Navy Blues | |
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| Lliam | Mar 29 2010, 10:16 AM Post #45 |
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Matthew Richardson
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I'll direct you to my earlier post mate ...
Just because he improves as a player, that doesn't necessarily mean he'll improve as a SCer. 15 kicks, 12 handballs, 8 marks, 3 hitouts, 3 tackles and a behind. Those were his stats. I don't see any of those categories significantly improving to be honest. So how's he gonna become elite? |
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| Deledio2Conca | Mar 29 2010, 10:29 AM Post #46 |
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John Meesen
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Prospectus says that he was incredibly accurate by foot last year as well, and even with that he could only muster 6 or so points more than his DT score, and he averaged 21 disposals a game....now....it would be incredibly tough to better his 84% disposal efficency IMO which is largely how Supercoach points are distributed. Even if he does manage 25 disposals a game, going by the current trend that would only take him to 95. Judd averaged 26 disposals in 2009 and averaged 111 in SC as a guide. |
| Weeeeeee areeeee the Navy Blues, we are the olllddddd daaarkkkkk Navy Blues | |
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| Stoney | Mar 29 2010, 12:36 PM Post #47 |
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David Spriggs
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Thats fine, and good arguments put forward. How will he improve his SC average? 1) Mentally developing as a player 2) Physically developing as a player 3) The rebounding defender role is probably the most rapidly growing position in terms of utilization over the last decade, and has been positively scewed for about 6 straight years with regards to the numbers players who occupy these positions produce. There is no evidence of this slowing up, but history suggests that these players will keep on getting bigger and better numbers well into the future. Looking in detail - 1) Mental development As he develops more mentally as a player, he will get smarter - the disposals per game will rise as he will position himself better on the field. In addition to rising disposals, as his all-round game develops... one percenters will increase, as too will his second, third and fourth efforts. As stated, he will lift his disposals from 21 (last year) at his peak and with modern trends of increasing disposal numbers, could be anywhere from 25 up to 28 per game in 5 years time for a rebounding defender. You're right RLL when you say that disposals dont equate to big SC scores always, but theyre a good start in my opinion - especially if you're efficient with them - which Birchall is. He's efficient, 84% by foot if D2T's stats are correct. More disposals = more efficient kicks. Add 84% of 4-7 extra disposals, and thats a relatively substantial increase in his SC score right there. 2) Physical Development As he develops more physically as an AFL player, he will greatly improve his ability to lay a greater number of effective tackles. That's not to say he will ever be Luke Ball or Lenny Hayes, far from it - he will never be a big tackler, but you could expect 1-2 more effective tackles per game - which increase his chances of getting holding the ball decisions - which equal winning the ball from your opponent, which in turn leads to a healthier SC output. Not only tackling will improve, but he will also improve his efficiency relating to winning contested football - which will see rises in scores yet again given the significance of contested possessions in championship data rankings. Physical development doesnt end with tackles and contested footy either, there are also subtle improvements as players mature, relating to defensive efforts, ability to win one-on-one marking contests, executing spoils etc. There is absolutely no reason to suggest these areas of his game wont be on the up also given he's still 4-5 seasons off his peak AFL permormance. Im happy for you guys to have your opinions, but you simply cannot discount the possibility of him being 100 point scorer in supercoach is all I'm putting forward. I think it's ignorant for anyone to say he simply cannot be a premium player in this game when he's already a very good player and still years away from his peak. |
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| Lliam | Mar 30 2010, 08:22 AM Post #48 |
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Matthew Richardson
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And you simply cannot discount the possibility that he won't become an elite scorer. Also I'll remind you that you said Dangerfield won't be elite, yet "he's already a very good player and still years away from his peak." |
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| Stoney | Mar 30 2010, 08:40 AM Post #49 |
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David Spriggs
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Once again RLL your putting words into my mouth... I never said Dangerfield wont be elite, I asked how can you say Gray will never be elite, but then in the same sentance you lock Dangerfield in as 100+ when Gray has shown more than Danger? I also said Dangerfield was overhyped, which he is. He's done relatively nothing except stand his ground in a few tackles that has the football world looming that he's the next mark ricciuto because he wears 32. How that equates to locking him in as a future 100+ Im not saying he wont be elite, but hes shown nothing compared to players like Gray and Birchall who are still young with their entire careers ahead of them, so how can you lock Danger in as 100 but say Gray and Birchall will never be premium players? As for Birchall, where have I said he will definitly be elite? I said anyone who thinks Birchall can't be elite is crazy. I'm just pointing out stupid comments that "he's not an accumulator" (which 21 for an early 20s y/o player suggests otherwise - not opinion - statistics speak for themselves). & that he 'will never be elite'... which again, if you look at alot of elite defender who plays a similar role, most of those players - if not all - weren't doing as much as Birchall is at the same age, but everyone is forgetting that - theyre comparing Birchall now to Goddard now, which is one of the most idiodic things I've ever heard. EDIT: Anyways, Im retiring from this convo as its obviously going nowhere, we'll reopen it in a year or two and see how we've gone with our predictions. |
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| Lliam | Mar 30 2010, 08:51 AM Post #50 |
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Matthew Richardson
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Not putting words in your mouth mate, simply taking what you're typing. And how is it me putting words in your mouth once again? And I don't think anyone really believes that Grant Birchall can't become elite, hell anything can happen, but people are expressing their opinions and some think that he won't be elite. You shouldn't just discount their views entirely because you think differently. He isn't an accumulator. That's a fact. Things could change, but right now his game style isn't that of an accumulator. At the same age as Birchall, Goddard was averaging 103 ppg. I don't see why it's wrong to compare the two players. |
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| Stoney | Mar 30 2010, 09:25 AM Post #51 |
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David Spriggs
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Birchall has shown he can play consistently, Danger hasnt... show if anything, it is the other way around. Thats not to say PD wont be very good, but your logic of why he will be 100+ and then saying Birchall wont, reasoning is questionable... that was the point I was making. Go back and look at Goddards first 4 years, and compare to Birchalls first 4 years. And for the final time, I'm not discounting people opinions, im discounting the stupid logic people are throwing up for their reasoning. The only's person's opinion I've discounted is shabby who said he'll be axed in 3 years time playing for box hill. And how on earth is Birchall not considered an accumulator - please define accumulator so we're on the same page? IE - to me, someone who can 'accumulate' possessions. Av possessions yr by yr - BIRCHALL 2006 - 19.2, 2007 - 21.1, 2008 - 21.9, 2009 - 21.4, and then 27 to open 2010. For a guy whose just turned 22, thats suggests he can find the football. Goddard's first 5 years 2003 - 13.3 2004 - 12.6 2005 - 14.9 2006 - 21.7 2007 - 18.6 Hodge's first 5 years 2002 - 15.5 2003 - 12.9 2004 - 15.7 2005 - 27.7 2006 - 23.3 The trend is, players break out from their 4th, 5th year onwards. Considering Birchall isntant adjustment to AFL football, to say he cant improve much is rediculous. To say he's not an accumulator is rediculous. And to question how / if he's going to improve is equally rediculous. |
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| Deledio2Conca | Mar 30 2010, 09:31 AM Post #52 |
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John Meesen
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That's a bit rich, given you were clutching at all the straws in the world....talking about mental and psychological ways Birchall will improve his game lol Edited by Deledio2Conca, Mar 30 2010, 09:32 AM.
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| Weeeeeee areeeee the Navy Blues, we are the olllddddd daaarkkkkk Navy Blues | |
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| Pie 4 Life | Mar 30 2010, 09:41 AM Post #53 |
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Mitch Thorp
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Lol this is the most discussed trade in history! lol... |
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| Stoney | Mar 30 2010, 09:41 AM Post #54 |
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David Spriggs
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lol... those two areas of development are the essence of any players development in the system. When a player is in the system longer, he gets smarter, he learns to position himself better. When a player is in the system longer, his body gets stronger and his ability to win constested footy, stand his ground in one-on-ones, ability to stick tackles improves dramatically. How do player increase theyre output D2M? do they just go out and get luckier and improve their output as they get older? No they improve the two fundamental areas to become good at anything - the mind and the body. Its not clutching at straws, they're the essence of the game, and if youve ever played footy at anything higher than a local level, youd understand that. |
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| Deledio2Conca | Mar 30 2010, 09:47 AM Post #55 |
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John Meesen
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This is hilarious lol How you think all of this will equate to more SC scoring even though he is already incredibly efficient is beyond me. |
| Weeeeeee areeeee the Navy Blues, we are the olllddddd daaarkkkkk Navy Blues | |
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| Dtm | Mar 30 2010, 09:48 AM Post #56 |
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Mark Blake
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Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz |
| New Zealand Consulate. Murray Hewitt speaking. | |
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| Deledio2Conca | Mar 30 2010, 09:51 AM Post #57 |
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John Meesen
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zzZZ? It's a great discussion dtm.....I'd rather a debate on this site than silence wouldn't you? |
| Weeeeeee areeeee the Navy Blues, we are the olllddddd daaarkkkkk Navy Blues | |
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| Dtm | Mar 30 2010, 09:54 AM Post #58 |
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Mark Blake
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But it's just the same points being re told over and over again! Anyway I'll but out as I'm not involved. |
| New Zealand Consulate. Murray Hewitt speaking. | |
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| Colby | Mar 30 2010, 09:55 AM Post #59 |
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Tom Jonas Appreciation Society
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It's still pretty funny.
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| Stoney | Mar 30 2010, 10:12 AM Post #60 |
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David Spriggs
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Dude your missing the point. He avs 21 possies now, you said he will never average 25 which is what it takes most ppl to click 100 sc points. Players get smarter as they spend more and more time in the system, they also improve their stength and endurance. He is 22, look at the other guns and how they broke out at similar ages despite showing less in the proceeding seasons. Every bit of evidence suggests he will improve to be a very good fantasy player (both DT & SC). Mate, I'm happy to leave it here and bump this at the end of 2011 and say "I told ya so" |
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